¿Qué hemos aprendido del tipo de cambio?

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Alberto Tovar

Cuando resentimos un entorno desfavorable de inmediato asumimos alzas en el tipo de cambio y en momentos de elevada incertidumbre siempre hay voces que pronostican niveles estratosféricos. Estas suposiciones nos pueden conducir a malas decisiones y es importante encontrar la lógica de la evolución de esta variable.

1. Los mercados se mueven en función de expectativas y después de cómo se registraron los hechos en la realidad. La razón es sencilla y obvia, quienes operan desean adelantarse para seguir una máxima: “comprar antes de que suba y vender antes de que baje”.

Por eso, en ocasiones parece que se comportan en una “contralógica”. Por ejemplo, el peso se revalúa porque existe la percepción de que el Tratado de Libre Comercio se firmará y cuando esto pasa, baja su valor, al considerarse que los acuerdos están por debajo de lo óptimo.

2. La situación ideal de un país es que la inflación y las tasas de interés confluyan en niveles similares y reducidos, de tal manera que el tipo de cambio sostenga su estabilidad. Esto permite certidumbre económica para realizar transacciones en el terreno productivo y ayuda al crecimiento.

Este objetivo explica por qué el Banco Central busca controlar la inflación a un dígito por medio de una política monetaria restrictiva con tasas de interés altas reales, que además de beneficiar al ahorrador nacional, atraen al capital externo abaratando el precio del dólar. Esto sucedería hasta alcanzar la confluencia mencionada.

Cuando la paridad empieza a elevarse por la especulación y genera la idea de que podría llegar a valores por arriba de la lógica, las autoridades intervienen a través de subastas de dólares e incluso con mayores alzas en las tasas de interés de referencia para detenerla. En este juego de expectativas, por lo regular pierde el novato y los pesimistas, quienes compran caro, para luego ver cómo se estabiliza en niveles inferiores.

3. Las expectativas se afectan literalmente con todo, aunque no encontremos a simple vista la justificación. Por ejemplo, hace unas semanas el dólar se encareció internamente debido a que Estados Unidos impuso un castigo arancelario a Turquía por mantener preso a un pastor norteamericano. ¿Por qué?

Resulta que los analistas consideraron que la perspectiva económica de Turquía podría provocar incumplimientos de su deuda soberana y dañar la liquidez internacional, impactando los flujos de recursos hacia países emergentes, entre los que se encuentra México.

4. Por tanto, participar en el mercado cambiario en el corto plazo es de mucho riesgo con una alta volatilidad y en el largo plazo ha sido una opción con rendimientos moderados. En todo caso, uno debe entrar para tener una cobertura en momentos en que exista la posibilidad de que se deteriore el patrimonio.

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