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Si piensa usted que hay optimismo en la mayor parte de la población, tras el triunfo de López Obrador… se queda corto.
Casi podríamos decir que hay euforia. Por lo menos eso es lo que reflejan los resultados de la encuesta que realiza el Inegi para calcular el Índice de Confianza del Consumidor.
Se trata de una investigación que se efectúa en las principales ciudades del país a través de poco más de 2 mil 300 encuestas en hogares, a personas mayores de 18 años.
Para poder calcular el índice, la encuesta pregunta sobre el presente y su comparación con el pasado, así como respecto al futuro, y su comparación con el presente.
Se pregunta de asuntos que atañen a la economía familiar y de otros que tienen que ver con la economía nacional.
El índice (con cifras corregidas por estacionalidad) saltó en julio en 14.8 por ciento respecto a los niveles de junio. Se trata del mayor cambio para un mes desde que se empezó a calcular este indicador en abril del 2001.
Cuando se ven las razones de este impresionante incremento, encontramos dos factores.
El primero tiene que ver con la expectativa que la gente entrevistada por el Inegi ve para la economía nacional. Hubo un salto de 31.9 por ciento en este índice y con ello se ubica en el nivel de mayor optimismo desde agosto de 2001.
Pero no crea que sólo hay optimismo en la visión “macro”. También lo hay en las expectativas de los hogares. En este caso, hubo un alza de 11.3 por ciento de un mes a otro, en las perspectivas para la economía del hogar. El nivel de optimismo que este indicador refleja no se veía desde noviembre de 2006, hace casi 12 años.
Lo que explica estos saltos es: por un lado, el resultado electoral que fue abrumadoramente favorable a López Obrador. Y, por el otro, el proceso de transición que ha sido terso y funcional, como casi nadie lo esperaba.
Sin embargo, a veces ocurre que cuando las expectativas son muy elevadas, como lo reflejan los indicadores señalados, la decepción puede llegar pronto.
A veces es mejor que las expectativas no sean tan altas para evitar el riesgo de una frustración rápida.
Veo muy difícil que, en el lapso de los siguientes 12 meses, la economía mexicana crezca sustancialmente más rápido y tampoco los hogares –en general– verán un alza significativa en sus ingresos.
Es más, no me sorprendería que, en el primer año del gobierno de AMLO, el ritmo de crecimiento fuera menor, por un proceso natural de ajuste del nuevo gobierno y por la típica caída del gasto público que se produce cuando nuevos funcionarios llegan.
La inversión privada, igualmente, estará a la espera de señales claras de las políticas que se van a emprender. Y aun cuando les gusten las que se pondrán en práctica, hay un proceso de varios meses antes de que esa percepción positiva se refleje en los hechos en inversiones.
En el caso de los hogares, no habrá un crecimiento extraordinario de los ingresos de la mayoría y el empleo mantendrá las tasas de crecimiento que tiene ahora, del orden de 4 por ciento, lo cual no está nada mal.
Si la estrategia económica de AMLO resulta exitosa, veremos que los resultados se reflejarán quizás hacia el 2020 o poco después.
Sé que el ‘optimismo excesivo’ no lo generaron deliberadamente AMLO o su equipo, pero sí pueden contribuir a propiciar una expectativa prudente… porque puede llegar pronto la decepción de quienes esperan resultados inmediatos.
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