Análisis Sin Fronteras
Ana María Salazar
Mucho de los eventos que han acontecido en un año, desde que fue electo Donald Trump, deberíamos haberlos anticipado. Pero la verdad es que a diario sigue sorprendiendo el presidente de Estados Unidos. Probablemente la lección más importante que hemos aprendido desde el 8 de noviembre de 2016, es que la sorpresa y promover el caos es el escudo que lo protege.
En la víspera de su aniversario como ganador de la contienda presidencial de 2016, una encuesta realizada por el Washington Post-ABC News revela que Trump es el presidente con menor aprobación, menor incluso que cualquier otro presidente en un período de cinco décadas de encuestas. El índice de aprobación de Trump se encuentra en 37 por ciento, con apenas nueve meses a cargo de la presidencia. De acuerdo con el Post, Trump tiene un índice de desaprobación de 59 por ciento; es decir, el margen entre aprobación y desaprobación es de -22 por ciento, convirtiéndolo en el primer presidente con margen negativo de aprobación de acuerdo con la encuesta. El sondeo del Post revela que el 65 por ciento de los estadounidenses dicen que Trump “no ha cumplido mucho” o “casi nada” desde que se instaló en la Casa Blanca. Además, el 55 por ciento de los norteamericanos dicen que Donald Trump no ha cumplido sus principales promesas de campaña, superando ya el 41 por ciento de los que opinaron lo mismo meses atrás, en la primavera.
No es muy claro si el nivel de desaprobación está vinculado al hartazgo de los electores por la información diaria de los diferentes escándalos del entorno de Trump, o por sus tuits, o por su comportamiento público, pero otra lección para los políticos es que, aun Donald Trump no es invencible ante la opinión pública. Eventualmente se deteriora.
Los demócratas seguramente argumentarán que esto les permitió ganar; por fin les dio un éxito electoral, este martes, ganando dos gubernaturas, en Virginia y en Nueva Jersey. Pero que no canten victoria, porque si algo demostraron las elecciones de esta semana es lo débil que está el partido y la imagen de los demócratas, que no han podido recuperarse de la catástrofe electoral de hace un año. Las elecciones en Virginia y en Nueva Jersey deberían de haber sido fáciles y contundentes. Y no lo fueron.
Hay un nuevo fenómeno en el “Mundo Según Trump”, donde un mandatario rodeado de escándalos y de una deteriorada imagen, no necesariamente se traduce en debilidad y capacidad de mantenerse en el poder.
Las pérdidas en los procesos electorales, la caída de las encuestas y el maltrato público y constante de Trump a los republicanos, debería de haberse convertido en peligro político para el presidente, que se traduciría en pérdida de apoyo por parte de su partido.
Pero sigue en pie, en parte porque los republicanos temen que vaya a crear una profunda división en el partido, o peor todavía, crear un partido aparte. Pero también, sabe la plana mayor, que la única apuesta que tienen para mantener el control sobre las dos cámaras –y así asegurar que algunas de sus propuestas legislativas sean realidad–, es que tienen que seguir apoyando y hasta protegiendo al presidente en las investigaciones del Rusiagate. Moraleja de esta estrategia trumpiana: recuérdales a tus enemigos que todos van en el mismo barco, y si lo hunden, todos se van al fondo del mar, incluyendo las ratas que trataron de lanzarse al agua con salvavidas.
Pero el instinto llevó a Trump a usar la estrategia promovida por Julio César –dīvide et īmpera (divide y conquista). Y es esta división la que podría asegurar que no enfrente un juicio político; y en una de esas, Trump sorprende a todos aguantando los cuatro años sin ser depuesto. La división entre los republicanos y demócratas, la división racial, la división territorial, la división entre la clase empresarial, y la división hasta en su mismo entorno político y familiar, podría ser el secreto que asegure su supervivencia. Y esta es la lección que debería de marcar la ruta para derrotar al presidente y destruir el Mundo Según Trump: el enemigo de mi enemigo, es mi amigo. Y si esto no lo entendieron republicanos y demócratas a estas alturas, vamos para muchos años más de Trump y sus aliados en el poder.
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Twitter: @Amsalazar
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