¿Quién podrá contar otra historia?



Enrique Quinrana

Si usted pregunta al azar entre amigos y conocidos acerca de cómo está la economía mexicana en estos momentos, lo más probable es que le digan que anda mal.

Para fundamentar esa respuesta le dirán que el salario no alcanza, que todo está muy caro, que el dólar anda por las nubes, y que le ha ido muy mal a los negocios. Y, además, le van a decir que todo es culpa de este gobierno.

Le presento sólo algunos datos para ver en qué medida la opinión popular tiene fundamento.

Hay una medida muy relevante del poder de compra de las familias que se llama masa salarial real. Ésta resulta de ver de manera conjunta qué pasa con el empleo y el salario real.

De mayo de 2013 al mismo mes de este año, el empleo formal creció 16.4 por ciento, lo que significa una tasa anual promedio de 3.8 por ciento.

En ese mismo lapso, el salario nominal del sector formal creció en 18.9 por ciento, con base en el salario medio de cotización al IMSS. La inflación en ese periodo fue de 15.99 por ciento.

De esta manera, el salario real creció en 2.5 por ciento.

Combinadas, las cifras de empleo y salarios dan como resultado un crecimiento de 19.3 por ciento en la masa salarial real para el lapso de estos cuatro años, es decir, una tasa anual media de 4.4 por ciento.

Por comparación. A lo largo de todo el sexenio de Calderón, el salario real creció 1.0 por ciento real y el empleo en 16.5 por ciento. El crecimiento de la masa salarial tuvo un promedio anual de 2.7 por ciento.

Durante la administración de Fox, el salario real creció 15.7 por ciento y el empleo en 9.4 por ciento. El crecimiento medio anual de la masa salarial ascendió a 3.9 por ciento.

Pese a que este indicador del poder de compra tuvo un mejor desempeño en esta administración, existe la impresión de que las cosas están hoy peor que en los últimos dos sexenios.

Es cierto, como hemos comentado en este espacio, que hay variables económicas que han tenido un muy mal desempeño, como la inversión pública.

Pero las que tienen que ver con el bienestar de la mayoría, mejoraron más que en otras administraciones.

El crecimiento de las ventas del comercio minorista fue de 17.6 por ciento en los últimos cuatro años, una tasa promedio de 4.0 por ciento al año, que se explica por la mayor masa salarial.

El problema que se ha presentado desde finales de 2014 es que, tras concretarse las llamadas reformas estructurales, que conformaron la narrativa de los primeros años de la actual administración, pareciera que el gobierno se quedó sin historia qué contar en materia económica.

Intentos como aquel de: “las cosas buenas no se cuentan, pero cuentan mucho”, han fracasado. Por definición, no se cree a un gobierno que habla bien de sí mismo.

La realidad económica del país en los últimos años tiene claroscuros, pero la opinión popular pareciera ver sólo los oscuros.

Cualquiera que sea el candidato del PRI o de varios partidos aliados con el tricolor, si quiere competir tendrá que desarrollar la capacidad para contar una historia clara y convincente de los hechos económicos que han sido positivos y que no han sabido narrarse. Quizás uno de los pocos ámbitos en los que hay cosas de que presumir.

Twitter: @E_Q_


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