La estrategia de EPN para 2018

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Enrique Quintana

El presidente Enrique Peña se ha catalogado a sí mismo como un ‘político ortodoxo’. En sus más recientes participaciones públicas ha hablado expresamente de la ‘liturgia priista’ y de cómo el presidente ‘lee la mente del partido y el partido la del presidente’.

Si a alguien le quedaba alguna duda de que será él quien designe el candidato del PRI a la presidencia, con esas expresiones, queda totalmente disipada.

Hay quien piensa que la elección que hará el presidente dependerá de las condiciones del país. Si el reto es económico y financiero –se dice– se inclinará por Meade; si es social, por Narro; si es de gobernabilidad, por Osorio; si es educativo, por Nuño.

En su libro Mis Tiempos, López Portillo contó cómo su percepción de que el problema principal del país era el económico, lo hizo inclinarse por De la Madrid en lugar de Javier García Paniagua, por quien hubiera optado si el reto principal fuera político.

La circunstancia actual, sin embargo, en nada se parece a la de aquellos tiempos.

Hoy el reto principal para cualquiera que sea candidato del PRI no es resolver algún género de problemas, sino esencialmente ganar la elección.

La pregunta que ocupa al presidente Peña no es qué perfil es el mejor para los problemas que México tendrá a partir de 2019. No. La interrogante principal es quién tiene un mejor perfil para vencer a AMLO.

Si la solución a esta pregunta fuera cuantitativa, es probable que la decisión fuera claramente a favor de Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong, preferido de los priistas según las encuestas.

Sin embargo, también en diversas ocasiones el presidente ha señalado que venir abajo en las encuestas no es algo que para él sea determinante.

La frecuente referencia a su caso, que remontó de un tercer lugar distante a un triunfo amplio en el Estado de México, es el ejemplo claro de que no cree que la desventaja en las encuestas pueda ser el criterio determinante.

Lo crucial, en el entorno político que vivimos hoy, es la capacidad del candidato para atraer a los priistas, pero no sólo a los priistas, sino a quienes no se declaran como tales, pero podrían votar por un candidato que fuera cercano a su visión de país, y claro, que tuviera una conducta intachable en su trayectoria pública.

Eso es lo que da fuerza a la alternativa de José Antonio Meade, aunque también pudiera caber en alguna medida la de José Narro.

Quizás Osorio y Nuño serían opciones en un escenario en el que la principal apuesta es por el priismo.

Respecto a la fecha en la que se tomará la decisión, aunque le he comentado que podría ser la última quincena de noviembre, no descarto que pudiera ser la primera quincena de diciembre, poco antes del 14, que es la fecha de arranque de las precampañas, según comentario del propio presidente el martes pasado en la reunión con comunicadores.

Si ese fuera el caso, lo más probable es que nombre gobernador del Banxico hasta finales de diciembre o enero y que haya un gobernador interino –Roberto del Cueto, por antigüedad– por algunas semanas, tras la salida de Carstens el 30 de noviembre.

Lo que es un hecho es que, quizás como no había ocurrido desde hace muchos sexenios, el presidente tiene un pleno control de la definición del candidato del PRI. Es mucho lo que se juega en esa decisión y sin duda el presidente tratará de que sea lo más acertada posible.

Twitter: @E_Q_

 

 

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