2017: un arranque mejor de lo esperado
Coordenadas
Enrique Quintana
Si la economía mexicana va a enfrentar tropiezos –y no hay que descartarlo– quizás sea en los siguientes meses, porque hasta ahora muchas cosas van marchando como si no hubiera ganado Trump ni tuviéramos las amenazas que nos implica.
Le ofrezco algunas cifras.
1-El fin de semana pasado nos enteramos que el empleo formal creció en enero a una tasa de 4.2 por ciento anual. En enero de 2016 el ritmo de crecimiento fue de 3.8 por ciento. Así que, en materia de contratación de personal, hasta enero no tuvimos ningún freno.
2- Las ventas de autos en el mes de enero se desaceleraron, pero siguieron creciendo y establecieron marcas sin precedente. Se vendieron 123 mil 260 vehículos, 3 mil 567 más que en el mismo mes un año previo. El alza fue de 3 por ciento.
3- Walmart, la empresa minorista más importante del país, reportó en enero un crecimiento de 7.7 por ciento en sus ventas a unidades iguales y semanas comparables. A pesar del alza de 4.7 por ciento en los precios al consumidor en el primer mes del año, el crecimiento es de 2.9 por ciento en términos reales.
4- Ayer, la ANTAD presentó sus datos y reportó un incremento de 4.1 por ciento nominal que en semanas comparables (cálculo que no realiza ANTAD) seguramente sería del orden de 6.5 por ciento aproximadamente.
5- No hay datos aún respecto al crédito bancario en enero. Las cifras estarán disponibles hasta el último día de febrero, pero los reportes que he podido obtener entre los bancos indican que, por lo pronto, no se ha limitado el crecimiento y que muy probablemente se mantengan tasas de doble dígito en todos los segmentos del crédito.
6- La recaudación fiscal, otra de las variables relevantes, también resultó favorable en enero. Una captación de impuestos por arriba de lo previsto fue el colchón que permitió posponer el ‘gasolinazo’ y que refleja el buen desempeño de la economía en el arranque del año.
7- El precio del dólar cerró ayer en 20.28 pesos al mayoreo, lo que implica una revaluación de 2.1 por ciento en lo que va de este año.
Pero, en contraste, la confianza de los consumidores sufrió un desplome histórico. La caída a tasa anual (con datos desestacionalizados) fue de 25.7 por ciento. Ni en 2008 o 2009 tuvimos una caída de esa magnitud.
Como quien dice, el ánimo anda en el subsuelo, pero los datos concretos no sustentan esa caída.
Un cambio de tal magnitud en la percepción de los consumidores no puede darse sin consecuencias.
Estamos en la disyuntiva de que el cambio de las percepciones empiece a dar malos resultados en la economía, que se reflejarán quizás en las cifras económicas del segundo o tercer trimestre de este año.
O bien, de que existan señales que nos digan que los riesgos del corto plazo están acotados porque no habrá ningún trastorno mayor en la relación con Estados Unidos.
Curiosamente, hablando en los últimos días con algunos empresarios importantes, resulta que sus mayores preocupaciones están puestas en la sucesión presidencial del 2018 y no en los efectos económicos de las medidas de Trump, en vistas de la ventaja que ha adquirido AMLO en las encuestas.
El tema es muy relevante. Regresaremos próximamente a él.
Twitter:@E_Q_
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