Coordenadas
Enrique Quintana
La relación económica de México con Estados Unidos tiene muchas líneas que deben considerarse. Ellas marcarán el futuro inmediato y aún el de largo plazo. Van por lo pronto, seis de ellas.
1.- Las economías de México y Estados Unidos (EU) tienen una inercia que conducirá a que, en el corto plazo, el comercio no sólo no baje, sino que incluso crezca como producto de la mayor actividad industrial en la economía norteamericana. Aunque en enero la industria en EU estuvo estancada respecto al mismo nivel de 2016, en los meses previos hubo un impulso al crecimiento que cambió la tendencia negativa de la primera mitad del año pasado. Las exportaciones no petroleras de México a EU, según los datos del Inegi, crecieron en 7.6 por ciento en el primer mes de este año. Así que los indicios señalan que, al margen de la llegada de Trump, la inercia comercial sigue como si nada ocurriera.
2.- Ya hay efectos en la inversión, pero vamos a tardar algunos meses en medirlos. Cuando se revelen las cifras de inversión fija bruta en México para los primeros meses del año seguramente veremos una caída. Hasta noviembre del año pasado teníamos un raquítico crecimiento de 0.4 por ciento promedio anual, que contrasta con el alza de 4.2 por ciento que se alcanzó en 2015. Seguramente, al menos en alguna parte del 2017, veremos caídas de la inversión.
3.- En el corto plazo no veremos una renegociación del TLCAN. La razón es que, tanto México como Estados Unidos, y seguramente Canadá, están dando un espacio para escuchar las perspectivas de los sectores productivos. La renegociación, si no hubiera más sorpresas, estaría comenzando en el segundo semestre de este año, lo que dará lugar a un periodo largo de incertidumbre, que puede mitigarse si hubiera acuerdo respecto a modificar puntos específicos del actual acuerdo y agregar capítulos ausentes.
4.- La clave de las perspectivas de corto plazo es la posibilidad de un esquema fiscal en el que se incluya la Tarifa de Ajuste Fronterizo (BAT), que castigaría globalmente a las importaciones que realiza Estados Unidos y generaría un incentivo para no invertir fuera de EU y buscar proveedores de ese país. México debería estudiar con cuidado el tipo de respuesta que podría dar, con objeto de no darse ‘un balazo en el pie’ y afectar negativamente el comercio y con ello el crecimiento. No sería raro que hoy mismo por la noche Trump planteara los lineamientos de este tema… o los rechazara.
5.- Será relevante también el resto de la reforma fiscal, que incluye una reducción del ISR corporativo y del ISR para las personas físicas, que también podría generar a México el desafío de alinearse con el esquema norteamericano para evitar que las empresas pudieran moverse a EU motivadas por los menores impuestos.
6.- El esquema fiscal incluye un mayor gasto, tanto militar como en infraestructura. No debe descartarse que surja un mayor déficit fiscal que requiera más deuda y por lo mismo presione hacia arriba a las tasas de interés. Aunque, por otra parte, el mayor gasto podría dar lugar a una mayor actividad económica en el corto plazo.
Diversos y complejos son los lazos que nos amarran con la economía de Estados Unidos, y que, nos guste o no, nos seguirán afectando de manera preponderante en los próximos años.
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By what percentage did Mexico’s non-oil exports to the U.S. increase in the first month of this year, according to Inegi data? IT Telkom
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