Hay quien cree que el problema de la deuda pública es su tamaño. Más que eso, el problema principal es la probable tendencia alcista de su costo.
Vamos por partes.
Las cifras son muy claras: la deuda pública, en su definición más amplia (el saldo histórico de los requerimientos financieros del sector público, SHRFSP) creció fuertemente en la administración del presidente Peña.
Al finalizar el sexenio de Felipe Calderón era equivalente al 37.7 por ciento del PIB y al cierre del año pasado llegó a 47 por ciento, habiendo alcanzado un máximo en 2016, con un 48 por ciento.
En sexenios anteriores, no se había presentado un disparo equiparable. Al término de la presidencia de Zedillo, ese indicador alcanzaba el 31.9 por ciento del PIB y terminó el sexenio de Fox en un 29.8 por ciento.
En la gestión en Hacienda por parte de Francisco Gil y su equipo, lograron un desendeudamiento neto del país.
Esa tendencia no se logró mantener tras la crisis financiera de 2008. Tan sólo en 2008 y 2009, el saldo de la deuda pública creció en siete puntos del PIB y llegó a 36.2 por ciento.
Así que no fue extraño que el sexenio pasado, cerrara con un incremento de 7.9 puntos.
Al término del periodo de Peña, los estimados más recientes indican que tendremos un coeficiente de 45.5 por ciento del PIB, lo que implica un aumento de otros nueve puntos en ese indicador.
Es decir, en dos sexenios, hubo un incremento de la proporción de la deuda pública en el PIB en casi 17 puntos.
Gracias a la etapa de intereses bajos que vivimos en el mundo tras la crisis de 2008, y a la buena calificación de la deuda mexicana, este incremento no se ha traducido en un disparo del costo de la deuda.
En el 2006, el costo de la deuda pública era equivalente al 2.6 por ciento del PIB. Para el cierre de este año será del orden de 2.8 por ciento, a pesar del alza del saldo total de los pasivos del país.
El problema en este momento no es el costo, sino el riesgo de que haya una tendencia alcista más acusada en las tasas de interés en el mundo y eventualmente, una baja en la calificación de nuestra deuda que contribuya a elevar el costo.
Dado que el saldo de la deuda neta andará al final de este año en 10.5 billones de pesos, un incremento de un punto porcentual en su costo implicaría un costo anual adicional de poco más de 100 mil millones de pesos.
Esta misma semana se da como un hecho que la Fed incrementará sus tasas de interés ante el riesgo de presiones inflacionarias en Estados Unidos.
Será difícil que, para el 4 de octubre, cuando la Junta de Gobierno del Banco de México realice su próxima reunión de Política Monetaria, no siga a la Fed con otro incremento de un cuarto de punto en México.
Así, la TIIE a 28 días, que es una frecuente referencia para el cobro de créditos en México, probablemente subirá otro poco por arriba del nivel de 8.12 por ciento que tiene actualmente. Y, en el caso de la deuda interna del gobierno, es probable que el nivel de los Cetes a 28 días se vaya aún más allá del 7.69 por ciento que tiene actualmente.
Es probable que, en el 2019, todavía tengamos un incremento de quizás otro medio punto, ante probables presiones inflacionarias.
Así que llegar a 2020 con tasas de Cetes arriba de 8 por ciento y una TIIE cercana a nueve puntos, es algo probable.
Haga sus cuentas.
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