Coordenadas
Enrique Quintana
Por varios meses le hemos comentado que es prácticamente un hecho que la economía va a crecer menos en el segundo semestre del año, y ayer el Inegi ya lo constató.
Dio a conocer las cifras del Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) correspondiente a julio; este es el primer dato correspondiente al segundo trimestre del año.
Con cifras desestacionalizadas, el crecimiento a tasa anual fue de 1.3 por ciento. Se trata de la cifra más baja desde abril de 2016. Y en términos mensuales, tuvimos un retroceso de 0.7 por ciento respecto a junio.
Dos cosas se combinaron para generar este comportamiento. El sector agropecuario creció 2.4 por ciento. La cifra no está mal, pero muestra que este año estará por abajo del nivel de 3.6 por ciento de todo el año pasado.
Que el sector industrial caiga no es novedad, pues la minería lo ha arrastrado para abajo. Pero hay que remontarse a junio de 2013 para encontrar una caída de 1.5 por ciento anual, como la que ayer informó el Inegi.
Es visible que el crecimiento de las manufacturas, de 2.7 por ciento, ya basta para compensar la fuerte caída de la actividad minera, de 8.7 por ciento a tasa anual.
Y, en el sector terciario, que era el verdadero motor de la economía, se observa una clara pérdida de dinamismo. Registró un crecimiento de 2.7 por ciento, el más bajo desde junio de 2016, trece meses antes.
De manera muy simplista y resumida podemos decir que el debilitamiento en el dinamismo del mercado interno no ha sido compensado por el empuje exportador, y esto ha terminado por producir una desaceleración global en la actividad económica, quizás incluso más pronunciada que lo que la mayoría esperaba.
¿En qué medida se puede producir un debilitamiento mayor de la economía por los impactos derivados de los sismos?
Como aquí le hemos comentado, el efecto directo pareciera relativamente menor. Pero si los efectos indirectos, como la reducción de la actividad comercial y turística en la Ciudad de México se prolongara, entonces habría que revisar las estimaciones del impacto.
El promedio de los pronósticos de crecimiento de la economía para el año completo es de 2.1 por ciento, de acuerdo con la encuesta de Citibanamex publicada el pasado 21 de septiembre.
Con una simple regla de tres se puede estimar el crecimiento estimado para el segundo semestre completo. El PIB creció en 2.3 por ciento promedio en la primera mitad del año, así que el ritmo de la economía debiera ser de 1.9 por ciento promedio en el segundo semestre para tener un 2.1 por ciento para el año entero.
Sin embargo, sobre la base del resultado del IGAE de julio, no hay que descartar que en las siguientes encuestas el crecimiento estimado se mueva ligeramente a la baja.
Pero, más que las cifras macroeconómicas, lo relevante es la diferencia sectorial. Lo más probable es que la desaceleración del mercado interno prosiga y que pierda fuerza el impulso exportador.
No se olvide de observar su mercado específico, en su sector o su empresa, pues en épocas así ese es el más relevante, más que el desempeño macroeconómico.
Twitter: @E_Q_
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