¿Y quién será el populista?

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¿Y quién será el populista?

Enrique Quintana

“Me preocupo por la gente pobre, que está trabajando muy fuerte y no tiene la oportunidad de avanzar. Y me preocupo por los trabajadores, que sean capaces de tener una voz colectiva en su lugar de trabajo… quiero estar seguro de que los niños están recibiendo una educación decente… y creo que tenemos que tener un sistema de impuestos que sea justo. Supongo que eso me hace un populista”.

La declaración anterior no es de Andrés Manuel López Obrador, sino de Barack Obama.

La expresó en Washington el 30 de junio del año pasado durante una visita del presidente Peña, quien, en su discurso, criticó al populismo.

Obama planteó una expresión incómoda al identificarse de esa manera pues el término populismo, en México, es casi un insulto.

En términos históricos, en México hablamos de populismo para referirnos a periodos como el de Lázaro Cárdenas, en el que hubo un gobierno que se cimentó en una estructura corporativista y se apoyó en movilizaciones masivas de los grupos organizados. En este populismo, los ciudadanos son irrelevantes, pero no así las organizaciones.

Pocos años después, otro caso en América Latina fue el gobierno de Perón en Argentina, particularmente apoyado por una figura como la de Eva Perón, quien podría ser la populista por antonomasia.

Sin embargo, en ese entonces no se asumía esencialmente como populistas a los gobiernos que emprendían políticas que requerían un gasto público desorbitado respecto a los ingresos con los que contaban y, por tanto, exigían déficit públicos elevados, financiados con emisión de dinero o con deuda.

Y eso ocurrió, sobre todo, en la década de los 70, con gobiernos como los que encabezaron en México Echeverría y López Portillo.

Pero ahora, en el mundo se les conoce como populistas a regímenes que ofrecen soluciones simplonas a problemas complejos, al margen de que movilicen grupos o propongan déficit fiscales. Como el gobierno de Trump, que atribuye la pérdida de empleo industrial a acuerdos como el TLCAN o a la migración de los mexicanos.

Así que más vale aclarar hoy de qué populismo estamos hablando cuando a determinado personaje se le califica de esa manera.

Por ejemplo, si el populismo tiene que ver con la propensión a gastar de más, creo que la amenaza va mucho más allá de AMLO.

Para casi todos los candidatos que entren a la contienda presidencial, va a existir una propensión natural a hacer ofertas que requieren más gasto público, sin que propongan un esquema de recaudación real que lo sustente.

O bien, ofreciendo soluciones simplonas, falaces y populares, como la reducción de los salarios de los funcionarios públicos como fuente de financiamiento de programas sociales.

Creo que el riesgo de la reaparición de un déficit público inmanejable, de la tentación de hacer propuestas populares, pero sin viabilidad, o de buscar esencialmente el aplauso del ‘respetable’, sin nada sólido qué ofrecer, trasciende a AMLO.

El riesgo principal que enfrentamos es que el populismo a la mexicana, que incluye todos los atributos descritos, sea contagioso y que, para ganar, todos los candidatos tengan que incorporarlo sin que, por ejemplo, propongan una reforma fiscal real –de las que duelen– para sustentar financieramente sus políticas.

Twitter: @E_Q_

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