Este 2018, Andrés Manuel López Obrador tendrá su tercera oportunidad para ganar una elección presidencial. ¿La tercera será la vencida? Para que así sea, el precandidato de Morena debería estar pensando en los 10 estados del país que, digamos, no lo quieren.
Como sabes, AMLO ha competido por la Presidencia en 2006 y 2012. En ambas elecciones, hubo ocho estados en los cuales el tabasqueño quedó en tercer lugar de la votación… y en donde el ganador local también triunfó en la elección a nivel nacional.Por ello, los estados más difíciles para el tabasqueño son Aguascalientes, Coahuila, Colima, Chihuahua, Durango, Jalisco, San Luis Potosí y Veracruz.
En 2006, el panista Felipe Calderón fue el candidato más votado en esos ocho estados, y AMLO quedó detrás del PAN y del PRI. En 2012, en esas mismas entidades, el ganador fue el priista Enrique Peña Nieto y el morenista volvió a quedar abajo de esos dos partidos. Estos estados son un dolor de cabeza para López Obrador, pues quedó entre 14 y 30 puntos detrás del candidato más votado en ambas elecciones en las que ha participado, de acuerdo con el análisis que hizo Nación321 de los resultados electorales históricos del Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE).
Además, hay otros dos estados en los que AMLO ha quedado en tercer lugar en 2006 y 2012: Guanajuato y Nuevo León. En estos dos estados, los candidatos presidenciales del PAN han sido los más votados, pero Josefina Vázquez Mota en 2012 quedó en tercer lugar de la elección nacional.
En esos dos estados, la diferencia entre los candidatos panistas y López Obrador ha sido de entre 17 y hasta 40 puntos.
¿Estos estados seguirán votando igual en la presidencial? Seguro habrá cambios, al menos así lo dejan ver algunos de los comicios estatales de 2015, como Veracruz, donde el partido del tabasqueño tuvo una remontada importante.
LAS CAÍDAS DE AMLO
El mejor resultado de Andrés Manuel en una elección presidencial fue el de 2006, cuando fue el candidato más votado en la mitad del país, o sea, en 16 de las 32 entidades federativas. Para 2012, en su segundo intento, AMLO fue el candidato más votado en 8 entidades del país, de acuerdo con las estadísticas del INE.
Al comparar los resultados de las elecciones de 2006 y 2012, encontramos que hubo seis entidades en las que López Obrador fue el candidato más votado en su primer intento, pero en las que cayó al segundo lugar cuando su adversario fue el priista Enrique Peña Nieto. Hablamos de Chiapas, Hidalgo, Edomex, Michoacán, Nayarit y Zacatecas.
Además, hubo tres estados en los que triunfó López Obrador en 2006, pero en los que cayó al tercer lugar de la votación para 2012. Se trata de Baja California Sur, Campeche y Veracruz.
Solo hay un estado en el que AMLO tuvo un mejor resultado, es decir fue más votado, en 2012 comparado con 2006: Puebla.
LOS QUE TIENE ‘EN LA BOLSA’
Por otra parte, hay siete entidades en las que AMLO ha sido el candidato presidencial más votado, tanto en las elecciones 2006 como en las de 2012.
Las entidades en las que López Obrador ha tenido un respaldo constante en las urnas son la Ciudad de México, Guerrero, Morelos, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco y Tlaxcala.
En estos siete estados, AMLO ha mantenido su ventaja sobre Felipe Calderón en 2006 y sobre Enrique Peña en 2012, con márgenes que van desde 4% de la votación estatal -como en Morelos- y de hasta 30% -como en la CDMX-,. Por ello, estos estados son su músculo electoral.
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