Con una sola decisión, la administración estadounidense tiene, hasta el momento, un panorama más negativo que positivo. Te explicamos.

El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, y sus principales asesores argumentaron todo el fin de semana que el asesinato del general iraní Qassem Soleimani disuadiría futuros ataques y haría más seguro el Medio Oriente.

Sin embargo, la política de EU en la región parece ir en la dirección opuesta a lo que el mandatario estadounidense ha prometido desde hace mucho tiempo: más tropas estadounidenses han entrado; un Irán desafiante, no intimidado y roto por las sanciones; y aliados regionales que solo brindan un apoyo tibio al ataque aéreo de Trump en lugar de manifestarse a favor.

Los costos económicos del ataque contra Soleimani también están aumentando: el petróleo subió por encima de los 70 dólares el barril este lunes y las acciones de todo el mundo extendieron las pérdidas. Además, el oro subió a su nivel más alto en más de seis años.

La reacción política se produjo rápidamente, ya que la coalición liderada por Estados Unidos contra ISIS se vio obligada a suspender las operaciones y el parlamento iraquí pidió el domingo que las tropas estadounidenses se retiren de la nación. 

Trump respondió diciendo que Irak podría enfrentar sanciones y que tendría que «reembolsar» a Estados Unidos. Irán dijo que abandonaría los límites al uranio establecidos como parte de un acuerdo nuclear de 2015 que EU abandonó en 2018.

Las decisiones de Estados Unidos «han hecho que una situación ya volátil sea mucho más peligrosa«, declaró el teniente coronel retirado del ejército Daniel Davis, un miembro de alto rango de Prioridades de Defensa que está a favor de la retirada de las tropas estadounidenses de Irak. “Si prestaste atención a Irán en los últimos 40 años, sabes que nunca cederán ante ese tipo de presión. Es todo lo contrario», añadió.

El ataque contra Soleimani pareció unir a los iraníes después de meses de protestas contra su propio gobierno, con cientos de miles de personas que lloraron a un jefe militar que había hecho que su nación, golpeada por las sanciones económicas de Estados Unidos, pareciera fuerte al dar influencia a Teherán en los conflictos que van de Siria a Yemen. 

Irán ha prometido venganza, y los aliados, incluido el líder de Hezbolá, Hassan Nasrallah, advirtieron que ahora buscarán expulsar a los más de 50 mil soldados estadounidenses de la región.

«Unió a la mayoría de las fuerzas políticas en Irak contra Estados Unidos», precisó Fawaz Gerges, profesor de Relaciones Internacionales en la London School of Economics. «La administración de Trump calculó monstruosamente mal al caer en el juego de Irán».

La lucha contra ISIS se vio obstaculizada de inmediato, y la coalición liderada por Estados Unidos dio a conocer que suspendería las operaciones en Irak para centrarse en proteger las bases que han sido atacadas. Las amenazas de las milicias respaldadas por Irán han obligado previamente a la retirada del personal en las misiones diplomáticas de EU en todo el país.

Irak sirve como base de operaciones contra el grupo terrorista. Trump mencionó a los periodistas a bordo del avión presidencial el domingo por la noche que Estados Unidos no se iría a menos que le devolvieran los «miles de millones» gastados en una base aérea ahí.

Las crecientes tensiones en Medio Oriente golpearon los mercados a partir del viernes y continúa así hasta este día. Los futuros del petróleo subieron un 3 por ciento adicional este día después de que el Departamento de Estado advirtió sobre un «mayor riesgo» de ataques con misiles cerca de las instalaciones militares y de energía en Arabia Saudita. Las acciones japonesas, de Hong Kong y de Corea del Sur cayeron, y los futuros estadounidenses y europeos bajaron.

Después de que Trump y los funcionarios iraníes intercambiaran amenazas públicas sobre futuras represalias, el mandatario estadounidense ahora enfrentará preguntas de los legisladores que regresan a Washington luego del receso de fin de año, listos para entablar un amargo debate sobre la destitución del presidente por parte de la Cámara liderada por los demócratas y un juicio que pronto vendrá en el Senado controlado por los republicanos.

En EU, los republicanos han elogiado la eliminación de un líder responsable de ataques terroristas y los demócratas cuestionan la afirmación de la administración de que Soleimani era una «amenaza inminente», y también preguntan si Trump tiene una estrategia o plan más amplio para lidiar con las secuelas.

La presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes de Estados Unidos, Nancy Pelosi, envió una carta a los legisladores demócratas de la Cámara baja anunciando una votación esta semana sobre una resolución que limitaría el poder de Trump en cualquier posible acción militar con respecto a Irán.

El secretario de Estado, Mike Pompeo, habló sobre el caso de la administración en programas de noticias dominicales después de más de una docena de llamadas con contrapartes extranjeras, desde China a Arabia Saudita.

Pompeo mencionó que no había dudas sobre la inteligencia detrás de la decisión de matar a Soleimani, y que cualquier medida tomada contra Teherán sería «legal». Esa fue una respuesta a las preocupaciones sobre la amenaza de Trump el sábado de atacar «52 sitios iraníes», incluidos objetivos culturales si Teherán toma represalias. 

El comentario de Trump planteó inquietudes porque los ataques contra los bienes culturales están prohibidos en virtud de la Convención de Ginebra y las reglas de compromiso del Departamento de Defensa estadounidense.

«Nos comportaremos según las reglas del sistema», dijo Pompeo el domingo en entrevista con ABC.

A pesar del alcance internacional de Pompeo, había pocos signos de un fuerte apoyo entre los principales aliados de Estados Unidos más allá de Israel, mientras que la alianza de la OTAN planeó una reunión de emergencia este lunes para discutir las crecientes tensiones en la región. El primer ministro del Reino Unido, Boris Johnson, afirmó sobre la reacción europea al ataque contra Soleimani que «no lamentaremos su muerte», pero «estamos en estrecho contacto con todas las partes para desalentar el incremento de las tensiones».

Trabajar para el beneficio de EU es la grave situación económica de Irán luego de sanciones estadounidenses cada vez más estrictas que han eliminado en gran medida la capacidad del país de vender petróleo en el extranjero y excluirlo de la mayoría de los socios comerciales. Algunos analistas dijeron que las tensiones políticas en Irán solo serán cubiertas brevemente por la muerte de Soleimani.

«El asesinato de un general que desperdició una gran cantidad de recursos de Irán en guerras civiles árabes es poco probable que genere apoyo para el Gobierno», inquirió Ray Takeyh, miembro de alto rango de estudios de Medio Oriente en el Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores.

Pompeo parece que minimizó la importancia de que el parlamento iraquí pidiera la retirada de las fuerzas estadounidenses, sugiriendo que el primer ministro saliente, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, quien aseguró que se reuniría con Soleimani la mañana en que fue asesinado, estaba actuando bajo una enorme presión de Teherán.

Pompeo informó que Estados Unidos era una fuerza que actuaba para el bien en Irak, 17 años después de que lo invadiera para derrocar a Saddam Hussein. Pero el derrocamiento del dictador sunita en 2003 proporcionó una apertura que Irán ha explotado constantemente desde entonces, profundizando su influencia sobre el Irak de mayoría chiíta. La votación del parlamento cayó en líneas étnicas y sectarias, y los legisladores sunitas y kurdos se abstuvieron.

Es poco probable que las tropas estadounidenses abandonen Irak en el corto plazo, pero la votación iraquí del domingo fue condenatoria para los planes de Trump y de Estados Unidos para la región. El complejo diplomático en Bagdad se construyó después de la invasión de 2003 para ser la embajada estadounidense más grande del mundo, diseñada para servir esencialmente como una base operativa avanzada y un puesto de escucha en el Medio Oriente.

Con su último despliegue de alrededor de 3 mil 500 tropas en Kuwait, Trump ha reforzado las fuerzas estadounidenses en aproximadamente 17 mil desde mayo, socavando su promesa de sacar al país de «guerras interminables».

«Raramente un movimiento táctico único (el ataque contra Soleimani) produjo tantas consecuencias potencialmente negativas para Estados Unidos», expuso Aaron David Miller, miembro de alto rango de Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. «En una sola decisión, socavaron 17 años de una misión de EU».

Fuente: BLOOMBERG / NICK WADHAMS Y DAVID WAINER

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