Coordenadas… Venezuela y los reflejos de AMLO

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Coordenadas

Enrique Quintana

Críticos y apologistas coinciden en un hecho incuestionable: la habilidad política de Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Por algo ganó la elección.

¿Qué es habilidad política? La capacidad de declarar y actuar de modo tal que logra maximizar el respaldo y minimizar el rechazo en cada uno de sus dichos o determinaciones.

La métrica de esa habilidad política tiene que ver primordialmente con la población general. Pero, también puede contrastarse con las opiniones de círculos específicos, como la comunidad inversionista, que hoy está preocupada por la posición mexicana respecto a Venezuela.

Las inclinaciones del presidente López Obrador lo han llevado a marginarse de las posiciones críticas hacia Maduro, como las de la OEA.

Y en contraste, lo han acercado a puntos de vista como el del gobierno de Cuba o Bolivia, cada vez en minoría más notoria en la región.

En un contexto de una gran división en Venezuela, el discurso de AMLO tenía más posibilidades de prosperar. Pero con el cuadro que vimos ayer, en donde la oposición borra del mapa a quienes respaldan a Maduro, claramente la postura del gobierno mexicano se ve virtualmente como un respaldo al sucesor de Chávez, por más que se justifique bajo el principio de la no intervención.

El gobierno mexicano puede hacer un papelón si no se sale a tiempo de esa postura.

Hay algunos que rememoran lo que ocurrió en el gobierno de López Mateos cuando en el seno de la OEA, México se quedó solo y no respaldó la posición de Estados Unidos y de la mayoría de la OEA, de expulsar a Cuba.

No se sostiene el paralelo.

En ese entonces, había triunfado un movimiento popular que derrocó al régimen dictatorial de Fulgencio Batista.

Hoy, el movimiento popular que vimos en las calles pretende el derrocamiento del dictador Nicolás Maduro.

El guion que tiene el gobierno de AMLO está al revés.

Todavía tiene la oportunidad de salirse de la trampa en la que se está quedando por su posición abiertamente ideológica y poco pragmática.

Ebrard tiene todo el colmillo para saber en qué momento el gobierno mexicano debe distanciarse clara y nitídamente de Maduro.

No sé si el respaldo internacional a Juan Guaidó vaya a significar el fin de Maduro o si vaya a quedarse todavía por meses.

No es la primera vez que se hace la profecía de la inminente caída de Maduro.

Sin embargo, es muy claro que en Venezuela va a haber un cambio político.

¿Tendrá el gobierno mexicano los reflejos para no caer en la telaraña que él mismo se está tendiendo en el ánimo de tener otra alineación en la región?

No lo sé.

Pero sí sé que si AMLO se quedara raspaldando –de facto– a Maduro, junto con gobiernos como el de Cuba, Nicaragua y Bolivia, sería un tremendo autogol que le costaría mucho en términos de su imagen internacional y la confianza que puede inspirar a la inversión.

El presidente López Obrador ha mostrado unos extraordinarios reflejos en materia de política interior. Y una gran astucia en su trato con Donald Trump.

¿Podrá mantener esas calificaciones en su trato con Venezuela o terminaremos en la distinguida compañía de gobiernos dictatoriales o bananeros?

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