Coordenadas… ¿Cuánto es AMLO y cuánto lo demás?

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Coordenadas

Enrique Quintana

Tras las elecciones del 1 de julio, los indicadores financieros parecieron celebrar.

Entre el viernes 29 de junio y el lunes 27 de agosto, el índice de la BMV subió 5.8 por ciento.

Y, desde entonces hasta el viernes pasado cayó en 17.7 por ciento.

Si vemos la referencia de Estados Unidos, en el primer lapso que consideramos, el índice Dow Jones subió en 7.3 por ciento, mientras que, en el segundo, bajó en 2.4 por ciento.

Es decir, pareciera que más que celebrar el triunfo de AMLO, el índice de la bolsa en México siguió en su camino al de la bolsa neoyorquina, mientras que la espectacular caída posterior fue mayormente por efectos locales.

La cancelación del aeropuerto en Texcoco y el tema de comisiones bancarias, fueron los factores que más incidieron en la caída.

El impulso alcista de la bolsa no fue por AMLO, la caída sí.

Veamos qué pasó con el tipo de cambio.

Entre el 29 de junio y el 8 de agosto, el dólar se abarató en 1 peso con 41 centavos, el 6.2 por ciento. Desde entonces al cierre del viernes pasado, el dólar ya se encareció en 1.70 pesos, equivalentes a 9.2 por ciento.

El índice dólar de Bloomberg, que relaciona al dólar con las principales divisas, bajó 0.5 por ciento entre la víspera de la elección y el 8 de agosto.

En este caso, el fortalecimiento del peso sí puede atribuirse al “efecto AMLO”.

Desde entonces al viernes pasado, el alza del dólar medido por su índice fue de 2 por ciento. Es decir, también la mayor parte del impacto devaluatorio reciente fue por el “efecto AMLO”.

En el caso de las tasas de interés, la TIIE a 28 días, referencia frecuente en múltiples créditos, estaba en 7.93 por ciento en el mes de junio, mientras que la referencia actual es de 8.31 por ciento, un incremento de 0.40 que implica un encarecimiento de los créditos de alrededor de 5 por ciento por efecto del incremento de este indicador.

En Estados Unidos, el alza de las tasas de referencia de corto plazo, en ese lapso fue de un cuarto de punto.

Aquí nuevamente vemos que el “riesgo México” obliga a pagar tasas más elevadas.

Como se aprecia en esta rápida revisión, que no pretende ser exhaustiva, son identificables los dos componentes, el externo y el doméstico, en el comportamiento de las variables financieras.

Sin embargo, es claro que, en las últimas semanas, lo dominante es el componente local.

Aunque integrantes de Morena y del equipo de transición no lo quieran admitir, los golpes más fuertes que han tenido los mercados financieros recientemente han derivado de las decisiones del presidente electo o del Congreso dominado por Morena.

Los economistas del equipo de AMLO tendrán que revisar los discursos que va a pronunciar AMLO en su toma de protesta, pues podrían tener un impacto negativo en los mercados si envían señales que puedan considerarse como desafiantes a los inversionistas.

Lo lógico sería regresar en diciembre al discurso que generó tranquilidad en los meses de julio y agosto.

Y más aún, ese mensaje de estabilidad debe estar también contenido en el Paquete Económico 2019, que habrá de presentarse a más tardar el 15 de diciembre.

Sin embargo, la experiencia de las últimas semanas deja ver que López Obrador puede ser un personaje poco predecible. Veremos si en diciembre también nos da sorpresas.

 

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