Coordenadas
Enrique Quintana
Los verdaderos contrapesos
Una de las preocupaciones más generalizadas que escucho respecto al futuro gobierno que encabezará Andrés Manuel López Obrador, es la falta de contrapesos que tendrá.
Desde 1997, tuvimos gobiernos que no contaban con la mayoría absoluta de las dos cámaras del Congreso, lo que impedía que –como lo hacía el PRI en el pasado– pudieran hacer cambios legales sin concertar al menos con otra fuerza política.
Esa etapa de poco más de 20 años terminará a partir del 1 de diciembre.
Pero, además, poco a poco se tuvo igualmente un mosaico en el país, donde muchos gobiernos estatales provenían de partidos diferentes al del presidente de la República.
Si las preferencias electorales se mantuvieran como hoy, Morena ganaría fácilmente la mayoría de los estados en 2021, como ya ganó este año los congresos locales.
Tampoco los estados serían un contrapeso.
Algunos de los órganos autónomos más importantes, como el Banxico o el INE, a lo largo de este sexenio, renovarán la mayoría de sus integrantes. Si el Jefe del Ejecutivo así lo decide, podrá seguramente proponer a una mayoría de integrantes que le sean cercanos.
No podrá ser así en el caso de la Suprema Corte, donde los calendarios no permiten la renovación de la mayoría de los ministros en un solo sexenio. Pero será casi el único caso.
Algunos piensan entonces que los contrapesos vendrán de la sociedad civil. Pero, ¿en qué medida la sociedad civil podrá serlo realmente?
A diferencia de lo que sucedió con la actual administración, en la cual las críticas al poder público tuvieron fuerte impacto, por ejemplo, cuestionando la corrupción, por lo menos en el corto plazo, no se percibe que pueda haber una incidencia mayor debido a la legitimidad del triunfo de AMLO.
A mi parecer, el contrapeso fundamental del futuro gobierno serán los mercados internacionales.
Ellos no van a ser influidos por los discursos, ni encantados por los gestos. Van a juzgar por las decisiones objetivas y por las acciones.
Los inversionistas no se dejaron seducir por los críticos de AMLO que anticipaban que su triunfo iba a representar la hecatombe financiera.
Mantuvieron la serenidad y esperaron objetivamente las señales que vendrían de las propuestas del nuevo gobierno.
Ahora harán lo mismo. Si hubiera políticas que no les gustaran, no tendrían ninguna compasión y actuarían de manera despiadada vendiendo activos en pesos, en caso de que percibir riesgos excesivos.
El caso reciente de Argentina muestra claramente la lógica de comportamiento de los mercados.
No importa que hayan respaldado algún gobierno en el pasado. Si por alguna razón le pierden la confianza, el efecto sobre la economía de ese país puede ser devastador.
Si López Obrador desea cumplir una parte razonable de las promesas que hizo en la campaña, no puede darse el lujo de tener una crisis financiera.
Por esa razón, es previsible que norme su comportamiento –por lo menos en política económica– buscando evitar que se desencadene una tormenta financiera.
Tenemos una economía abierta y fuertemente dependiente de lo que suceda en los mercados internacionales, al margen de quien sea el presidente de la República.
Por esa razón, es que, como ninguna otra fuerza, serán los mercados financieros internacionales el principal contrapeso que tengan las decisiones y acciones de AMLO.
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