El gobierno de López Obrador no será definido por un solo evento.
Este ponderado juicio fue publicado ayer en un análisis de Citibanamex respecto a la decisión de cancelar el proyecto del aeropuerto en Texcoco.
Sin embargo, el documento denominado “La decisión sobre el aeropuerto, una derrota para el sentido común”, también señala que esa decisión es un “proceso” en marcha hacia la incertidumbre económica.
Como todo proceso, este puede ser revertido o reforzado por decisiones posteriores en otros ámbitos.
Diversos lectores nos cuestionaron respecto a los escenarios futuros, tras la sacudida de los mercados del lunes pasado. La respuesta es que seguimos en una circunstancia incierta.
Fue mala señal el aparente desprecio por los mercados financieros que AMLO expresó en su conferencia del lunes. Pero, aún faltan diversas decisiones que deberán tomarse en las próximas semanas y que ya fueron condicionadas por la cancelación de Texcoco.
La más importante de todas ellas es el Presupuesto 2019. Ese documento, que entregará el equipo de Hacienda al Congreso, a más tardar en 45 días, influirá de manera decisiva en cómo se vea al gobierno de AMLO.
Si los balances que presenta en materia fiscal son creíbles en función del entorno macroeconómico, será un punto a favor de la estabilidad. Si resulta que no, que los inversionistas y analistas no están cómodos con ellos, entonces lo que vimos el lunes volverá a ocurrir de manera amplificada.
La clave son las estimaciones de costos financieros y el tipo de cambio.
Si se fijan artificialmente abajo las estimaciones de estas variables, se pueden “liberar” recursos para el gasto en programas sociales o inversión. Ese es el temor.
En los primeros ocho meses de este año se pagaron 203 mil 669 millones de pesos de intereses y comisiones por la deuda interna del gobierno federal, cuyo saldo neto es de 5.934 billones de pesos. Esto representa una tasa implícita anual de 5.1 por ciento.
En el caso de la deuda externa, el monto pagado hasta agosto fue de 2 mil 969 millones de dólares, lo que representa una tasa anual de 3.0 por ciento en función de los 93 mil 589 millones de dólares.
Es decir, sobre la base de estos saldos, por cada punto que subiera la tasa de interés interna, el costo de la deuda del gobierno (sin considerar Pemex, CFE o banca de desarrollo) sube en cerca de 60 mil millones de pesos al año.
En el caso de la deuda externa, un punto adicional es equiparable a 9 mil 500 millones de dólares.
Tasas más elevadas y un dólar más caro, aumentan el costo de la deuda pública y por lo mismo, reducen los márgenes de gasto.
De esta manera, los mercados financieros condicionan fuertemente el margen de maniobra del gasto público.
No importa que el Estado sea quien mande, la realidad es que ignorar o desestimar las reacciones de los mercados financieros puede ser muy costoso, como pueden atestiguarlo decenas de gobiernos de todos los signos en el mundo entero.
Los mercados no pueden mandar. En eso tiene toda la razón López Obrador.
Pero, la realidad es que enfrentarse a los mercados es una acción suicida. Hay que trabajar con ellos.
Eso lo entienden perfectamente Carlos Urzúa y Alfonso Romo.
¿Podrán convencer de su visión a López Obrador?
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