¿Con Trump hasta enero de 2025?

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Coordenadas /Enrique Quintana

¿Se imagina cómo sería en los próximos años nuestra relación con Estados Unidos si Donald Trump se queda en la presidencia de los Estados Unidos por cuatro años más?

Hoy comienza formalmente su intento de permanecer en la Casa Blanca hasta enero de 2025.

A las 7 de la noche tiempo de México, en Orlando, Florida, lanzará su campaña.

Hay que recordar que el discurso que pronunció hace poco más de 4 años, cuando, en la Torre Trump de Nueva York lanzó su candidatura, marcó el tono de toda su campaña. Fue entonces cuando criticó rabiosamente a los migrantes mexicanos.

“México manda a su gente, pero no manda la mejor. Está enviando gente con un montón de problemas. Están trayendo drogas, crimen, a los violadores”. Y anunció la construcción del muro.

Hace cuatro años eran muy pocos los que tomaban en serio al excéntrico personaje que pretendía salir de las pantallas de la TV a la realidad política.

Hoy, pese que hay numerosas encuestas que no le son favorables, hará una campaña desde la presidencia de Estados Unidos, que puede cambiar muchas cosas en los próximos meses.

Una parte importante de la realidad económica y política de México hoy en día deriva del triunfo que consiguió Trump.

Por eso, lo que vendrá en los siguientes años dependerá en gran medida de lo que suceda en este proceso electoral.

Todos los indicios señalan que va a buscar nuevamente que el tema migratorio ocupe un lugar muy relevante en la campaña.

No es casualidad que antes de comenzarla haya puesto a nuestro país contra las cuerdas con la amenaza de los aranceles o de convertir al país completo en el muro que no le ha dejado construir el Congreso.

La apuesta de Trump es que se logre evitar los aranceles. No le conviene a sus aspiraciones de reelegirse que comience una guerra comercial con México.

Pero sí necesita asegurarse que en la campaña pueda mostrar cifras de cómo se redujo la migración ilegal a Estados Unidos, gracias a que obligó a México a frenar esa migración.

Si logra la reelección, tendríamos cuatro años más de zozobra, y probablemente ese hecho sería el sello del gobierno de López Obrador, condenado a coexistir con el de Trump.

Sin embargo, gane o pierda Trump, en los 16 meses y medio que restan para las elecciones, vamos a tener uno de los periodos más complicados de las relaciones bilaterales entre nuestros países.

Es muy diferente un candidato que usa la retórica antiinmigrante, que un presidente que es capaz de realizar acciones antiinmigrantes, como parte de su campaña electoral.

Trump podrá mostrar también un desempeño económico mejorque el segundo mandato de Obama. En ese lapso la economía creció a una tasa anual media de 2.2 por ciento. En tanto en los primeros dos años completos de la administración Trump, la tasa fue de 2.5 por ciento y se logró el mejor registro de empleo de los últimos 50 años.

No son argumentos menores en su intento de reelegirse.

Sin embargo, todo indica que la apuesta va a seguir enfocada al tema migratorio. Aunque podamos evadir los aranceles por ahora e incluso, aunque se ratifique el T-MEC, habrá altas probabilidades de que antes de noviembre del próximo año amenace nuevamente con aplicar sanciones comerciales y salirse del Tratado.

Se trata de una perspectiva muy desagradable para nuestro país, sí. Pero necesitamos asumirla y apostar a que los votantes estadounidenses, en la próxima elección, voten con la cabeza y no con el hígado.

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