Coordenadas
Enrique Quintana
Para cualquier gobierno, la medición de la pobreza es sustantiva.
Pero para el gobierno de AMLO va a ser mucho más porque esa meta ha sido parte de sus banderas desde hace muchos años.
En su visión, podríamos tener un desempeño mediocre en el PIB si la pobreza bajara sustancialmente. Pero si no lo hace, ni el mayor crecimiento va a justificar las políticas de este gobierno.
Por eso, lo que sucede en el Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social (Coneval), no es cosa menor.
Siempre es útil hacer un poco de historia para entender la relevancia.
La discusión respecto al número de pobres en México adquirió relevancia en los primeros años del gobierno de Fox y de hecho, el gobierno, a través de la Sedesol, entonces a cargo de Josefina Vázquez Mota, constituyó un comité técnico de especialistas para determinar el procedimiento más adecuado para hacerlo.
La conclusión es que había que usar la Encuesta Nacional de Ingreso Gasto (ENIGH) del Inegi, como base para esta medición. La iniciativa cobró forma en una Ley General de Desarrollo Social propuesta en 2002 y a partir de 2004 dio lugar a la creación del Coneval.
Desde entonces, cada medición de la pobreza hecha por el Coneval ha sacado chispas y provocado intensos debates.
Sin embargo, al paso del tiempo, el organismo dirigido desde entonces por Gonzalo Hernández Licona, dio muestras de que privilegiaba los criterios técnicos sobre los políticos.
Esto se aseguró con la presencia de integrantes del mundo académico en su órgano de gobierno. Por ejemplo, en el comité directivo actual hay académicos de la UAM, El Colegio de México, del Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios Superiores de Antropología Social tanto del plantel Occidente como del Pacífico Sur, del CIDE y de la Universidad Iberoamericana.
El Coneval provocó disgusto en el gobierno de Calderón cuando reportó un alza de la pobreza de 2008 a 2010, en buena medida explicada por la crisis económica.
Pero, igualmente en el arranque del gobierno de Peña, molestó cuando señaló que entre 2012 y 2014, el porcentaje de la población en situación de pobreza pasó de 45.5 a 46.2 por ciento.
El Coneval permitió que AMLO argumentara en su campaña respecto al aumento de pobres en el país, pues su número pasó de 49.5 millones en 2008 (la primera medición realizada) a 53.4 millones en 2016.
Las cifras de 2018, el último año del gobierno de Peña, las conoceremos en los primeros días de agosto, luego de que el Inegi publique la ENIGH 2018 el próximo miércoles 31 de julio, exactamente dentro de una semana.
Ese será el punto de referencia para medir los resultados de esta administración en el combate a la pobreza.
La próxima medición, si no cambian los proyectos y los calendarios, será la correspondiente a 2020 y se dará a conocer en agosto de 2021, un par de meses después de que se realicen las elecciones del 6 de junio de ese año.
Debería ser del interés del gobierno de AMLO asegurar que haya unaabsoluta credibilidad en los resultados.
La narrativa del gobierno de López Obrador le pone menos énfasis a variables vinculadas al crecimiento y mucho más a las que tienen que ver con la distribución del ingreso.
La medición del Coneval ya no tendrá influencia en las elecciones de 2021, al menos en esta variable, pero su trabajo será muy importante para saber si el gobierno de AMLO, a la mitad de su camino, fue exitoso o no respecto a sus propios objetivos.
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