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Vaya que el entorno económico ha impactado en las finanzas personales. Reproduzco a continuación cuatro puntos de referencia muy valiosos publicados en El Financiero y saquen sus propias conclusiones.
1.- El 15 de noviembre Gabriela Siller en su columna señaló:
“Desde octubre el tipo de cambio subió 11.24 por ciento, al pasar de un mínimo de 18.50 a un máximo de 20.58 pesos por dólar esta semana, como consecuencia de mayor aversión al riesgo sobre México. La depreciación del peso inició con la degradación de la perspectiva en la calificación crediticia de Pemex, por los proyectos que la siguiente administración tiene.”
La especialista también apuntó que la paridad, desde una perspectiva técnica, debería estar, si se toma como año base el 2010 en 15.59 pesos por dólar, reflejando una subvaluación mayor al 17 por ciento.
2.- El 8 de noviembre se publicó:
“Luego de cinco meses consecutivos de alzas, la inflación anual tomó un respiro, al registrar una variación de 4.90 por ciento a tasa anual durante octubre, su nivel más bajo en tres meses, informó el INEGI.”
Es decir, la tasa de crecimiento de los precios continúa por arriba de la meta de 3 por ciento (más/menos uno) y es imprescindible continuar con una política monetaria restrictiva.
3.- El 15 de noviembre: “El Banco de México aumentó su tasa de interés este jueves, en línea con lo esperado por el mercado, en un contexto de un aceleramiento de la inflación y presiones sobre el tipo de cambio. El indicador se movió 25 puntos base, para llegar a 8 por ciento, a un paso del máximo histórico de 8.25 por ciento desde que el Banco Central adoptó la política de la tasa referencial en enero de 2008.”
Esta reacción de política económica conduce obviamente a un aumento en el rendimiento mayor para el ahorro, pero también en una elevación significativa del costo del crédito, sobre todo el del consumo.
4.- El 16 de noviembre: “En solo mes y medio, el Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones (S&P/BMV IPC) de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) acumuló una caída de ocho mil 390 puntos, que lo llevó hasta un nivel de 41 mil 450 unidades, un mínimo de casi tres años.
De acuerdo con analistas, esta tendencia bajista estuvo provocada principalmente por factores internos, entre los que destacan la incertidumbre generada por la consulta sobre la construcción del Nuevo Aeropuerto Internacional de México (NAIM) y el surgimiento de la iniciativa en el Senado para prohibir el cobro de comisiones bancarias.
Esta caída es la mayor registrada para un periodo similar desde 2008, de acuerdo con información de Bloomberg.”.
Sigamos atentos porque el entorno de inestabilidad aún no termina.
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