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Mañana, la Secretaría de Hacienda dará a conocer los resultados de las finanzas públicas para el mes de febrero.
El secretario, Carlos Urzúa, ya dio un adelanto en la entrevista que dio a Fórmula Financiera.
En ella señaló que, por lo pronto, los ingresos presupuestales del gobierno federal están por arriba de lo presupuestado.
De acuerdo con el calendario publicado en el Diario Oficial de la Federación, se estimaba que, a febrero, los ingresos presupuestales del gobierno federal fueran de 690 mil 911 millones de pesos.
Esto deriva de un ingreso previsto de 374 mil millones para enero y 317 mil millones para febrero (redondeando cifras).
En enero, ya sabemos que el resultado fue de 385 mil 883 millones de pesos de recaudación, lo que implica más de 11 mil 800 millones de excedente respecto a lo calculado.
En febrero, de acuerdo con el adelanto que dio Carlos Urzúa en la entrevista referida, la cifra obtenida fue de 317 mil 966 millones de pesos, ligeramente por arriba de lo estimado para el mes.
Es decir, la cifra real está más o menos, 12 mil millones de pesos arriba de lo calculado para el bimestre.
Este contexto es relevante por el señalamiento que hizo el jefe de la Oficina de la Presidencia, Alfonso Romo, a propósito de que podría venir un nuevo recorte de gasto, en caso de que los ingresos estuvieran por debajo de lo previsto.
A este juicio vino la respuesta del secretario de Hacienda, Carlos Urzúa, señalando que los números vienen bien, como referimos.
Si me preguntan quién tiene la razón entre los dos funcionarios, debo decirle… ¡que ambos!
Urzúa está correcto al advertir que, hasta ahora, el saldo de los ingresos presupuestales va arriba en 11 mil 938 millones de pesos.
Pero resulta que Romo tiene razón también. En enero, el excedente fue de 11 mil 800 millones de pesos, pero en febrero no llegó ni a mil millones de pesos.
Si la tendencia siguiera, lo más probable es que en marzo la recaudación estuviera por debajo de lo previsto. Punto para Romo.
¿A dónde vamos con estos números?
En el escenario de un menor crecimiento de la economía, va a ser muy complicado que las previsiones de recaudación se cumplan, simplemente porque a menor actividad económica, sin cambio en las tasas, normalmente hay menor recaudación.
Es decir, en el plazo de varios meses, se va a observar que seguramente sí se va a requerir un ajuste del gasto público en caso de que no se quiera aumentar el endeudamiento neto.
El Presupuesto para este año fue construido con un supuesto de crecimiento del PIB de 2.0 por ciento.
Si el crecimiento, como supone hasta ahora el consenso, se acerca más al 1.5 por ciento, dará lugar a una pérdida en la recaudación del IVA, del ISR y de otros impuestos asociados a la actividad económica.
Tiene razón el subsecretario Herrera, la pérdida –aun el peor de casos– no sería dramática, tal vez de pocas decenas de miles de millones de pesos.
En términos absolutos, suena mucho, pero respecto al monto total del Presupuesto, es realmente una cifra marginal.
Insisto, creo que los dos funcionarios tienen razón, y lo que estamos viendo es más bien un escenario en el que cada uno trata de posicionarse en la opinión pública, con sus argumentos, según el horizonte al que se refieran.
Se visualiza un corto plazo sin sobresaltos, pero un mediano plazo con mayor incertidumbre.
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