Coordenadas …Enrique Quintana

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El riesgo no es el TLCAN, es el BAT

Coordenadas

Enrique Quintana

El jueves pasado, Donald Trump dijo: “Vamos a anunciar algo, probablemente en dos o tres semanas que será fenomenal en términos de impuestos”. No hubo más detalles.

De acuerdo con comentarios de especialistas en Estados Unidos, quizás pueda tratarse de los detalles de su propuesta fiscal que incluye esencialmente recortes en las tasas impositivas.

La propuesta de Trump es bajar la tasa del ISR a las empresas a 15 por ciento y las tasas para las personas físicas limitarlas a tres escalones, 10, 20 y 25 por ciento.

El líder del Partido Republicano en el Congreso, Paul Ryan, también tiene una propuesta fiscal. Ella incluye la reducción del ISR corporativo a 25 por ciento, así como el recorte de tasas para las personas físicas a tres escalones, de 12, 25 y 33 por ciento.

Pero, además propone el ya muy famoso ‘ajuste fronterizo’ (BAT) en el cálculo del ISR corporativo.

El BAT no es un arancel ni un impuesto en sí mismo, sino una forma diferente de considerar exportaciones e importaciones en el cálculo del ISR corporativo.

De manera muy simplificada y esquemática, se trata de que las importaciones de bienes no se puedan deducir de la base de cálculo del ISR mientras que el ingreso generado por las exportaciones no cause ISR.

Hasta ahora, Trump no ha fijado una posición clara respecto a este impuesto y más bien ha hablado de una tarifa de 20 por ciento para las importaciones de las empresas norteamericanas que hagan inversiones fuera de EU y exporten al mercado estadounidense.

Sin embargo, mientras Estados Unidos siga como parte del TLCAN y de la OMC, no puede imponer legalmente un arancel como el que ha estado refiriendo Trump.

Las propuestas fiscales pueden llegar en semanas, mientras que la renegociación del TLCAN podría tardar meses en comenzar.

El Senado no ha confirmado el nombramiento de dos personajes clave. El secretario de Comercio, Wilbur Ross, ya tuvo su audiencia de confirmación, pero su nombramiento no ha sido votado. Robert Lighthizer, nominado como Representante Comercial de EU, ni siquiera ha tenido audiencia.

De este modo, el inicio formal de la renegociación del TLCAN bien podría darse hacia mayo o junio cuando más pronto.

En contraste, observadores del Congreso no descartan que la reforma en materia de impuestos pudiera discutirse en la Cámara en el mes de abril.

Si la propuesta de Trump, que daría a conocer en “dos o tres semanas”, incluye el ‘ajuste fronterizo’ propuesto por Ryan, los mercados financieros van a sacudirse.

Más allá de que esta reforma se pudiera litigar en la OMC, el Congreso tendría la facultad de imponerlo, con lo que se castigaría fuertemente a las importaciones de bienes intermedios que realiza EU.

El efecto sería especialmente fuerte en el comercio intrafirma o en las cadenas de valor de industrias como la automotriz o la electrónica, por citar sólo dos. El impacto para países como México o China sería enorme, con una probable reducción de exportaciones a EU y de inversión extranjera directa proveniente de EU y el costo sería para los consumidores de EU, salvo que se propiciara una revaluación del dólar que fuera más que proporcional al incremento de los precios de los bienes importados. Y, en ese caso, nos pegaría la depreciación adicional del peso.

Lo dicho, por lo pronto el BAT es la mayor amenaza en el corto plazo, no la renegociación del TLCAN.

Twitter:@E_Q_

ENRIQUE QUINTANA
Economista egresado de la UNAM con estudios de maestría en la misma institución. Se ha dedicado al periodismo y al análisis económico desde 1984. Actualmente es director general editorial de El Financiero. enrique.quintana@elfinanciero.com.mx

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    Bitcoin gesammelt sich in den letzten Jahren abgeschlossen einer beliebten Sicherung entwickelt. Hier sind immer wieder einige Vorteile jener Verwendung von Bitcoin:

    1. Bitcoin ist echt dezentralisiert, was bedeutet, dass es von seiten keiner Regierung oder Finanzinstitution kontrolliert sieht man. Dies kann wie Vorteil angesehen werden, da es den Benutzern mehr Kontrolle uber ihr Geld gibt.
    2. Transaktionen mit Bitcoin [url=https://sites.google.com/view/bitcoin-up-app/]bitcoin[/url] sind schnell und gunstig. Dies liegt daran, dass keine Vermittler (wie Banken) mit der Abwicklung der Zahlungen beteiligt sind.
    3. Bitcoin ist echt pseudonym, was bedeutet, dass Benutzer bei der Verwendung jener Wahrung relativ anonym bleiben konnen. Dies kann fur Benutzer attraktiv sein, alle Wert auf Privatsphare legen.

    [b]Die Risiken einer Investment in Bitcoin [/b]
    Bitcoin ist ein digitaler Vermogenswert und ein von Satoshi Nakamoto erfundenes Zahlungssystem. Transaktionen werden von Netzwerkknoten durch Kryptografie verifiziert und in dem offentlichen verteilten Hauptbuch namens Blockchain aufgezeichnet. Bitcoin ist insofern einzigartig, als es eine endliche Anzahl von ihnen gibt: 21 Millionen.
    Bitcoins werden als Wiedergutmachung fur einen Prozess geschaffen, der wie Mining bekannt ist. Sie https://sites.google.com/view/bitcoin-up-app/ konnen gegen andere Wahrungen, Produkte und Dienstleistungen eingetauscht werden. Seit Februar 2015 akzeptierten uber 100. 000 Handler und Versorger Bitcoin als Zahlungsmittel.
    Die Investition in Bitcoin ist verfahrensweise, da es einander um eine neue Technologie handelt, die von keiner Regierung oder Finanzinstitution unterstutzt wird. Der Geltung von Bitcoin mag stark schwanken, des weiteren Anleger konnten das ganzes Geld das nachsehen haben, wenn der betrag absturzt. Es besteht daruber hinaus das Risiko, falls Hacker Bitcoins aus Online-Geldborsen oder -Borsen stehlen konnten.

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