Coordenadas… Enrique Quintana

731
2037

EU: optimismo, pero con cautela

Coordenadas

Enrique Quintana

La reunión que ayer sostuvieron los secretarios de Estado y de Seguridad Interior de Estados Unidos, Rex Tillerson y John Kelly, con representantes del gobierno mexicano debe verse con dos ópticas.

La primera es la constancia de la posibilidad del diálogo. De acuerdo a lo informado ayer, tanto en México como en Estados Unidos, hubo un avance positivo en las discusiones.

La página del Departamento de Estado de la Unión Americana señala que los dos grupos de funcionarios (de México y EU) se escucharon con atención y abordaron temas comerciales, económicos, energía, migración legal, seguridad, educación, entre otros.

Pero salió también el tema de la venta y tráfico de armas, de EU hacia México, así como de los medios para desmantelar las organizaciones criminales vinculadas al narcotráfico y prevenir las amenazas terroristas.

Casi se podría considerar que la discusión de esta agenda, es parte de la “relación normal” de México con Estados Unidos… como si no estuviera Trump.

Previamente, en las declaraciones, John Kelly, secretario de Seguridad Interior de EU, ratificó que no habrá deportaciones masivas, como no las ha habido hasta ahora en la administración Trump.

La segunda óptica que no debe perderse de vista es que todo lo dicho ayer está con alfileres.

Incluso, ayer mismo empezaron a surgir contradicciones, pues mientras Kelly hablaba de que no habría militarización de las acciones para combatir la migración ilegal, Trump, en reunión con CEOs de EU, señalaba que la expulsión de los migrantes con antecedentes ‘criminales’, implicaba de facto “una acción militar”, aunque luego el vocero de la Casa Blanca, señaló que la alusión era metafórica.

La realidad es que el gobierno de Trump, hasta ahora, se ha mostrado poco confiable, lo cual no debe ser impedimento para tratar de construir una relación productiva.

En otro foro completamente diferente, en una entrevista con la cadena Fox, Steven Mnuchin, secretario del Tesoro, confirmó que la renegociación del TLCAN no se daría en el corto plazo. Textualmente dijo: “Buscaremos tener un Tratado que beneficie a los trabajadores estadounidenses, pero sabemos que tenemos que hacer otras (cosas) que beneficien a México”.

Esa declaración pareciera ser también muy positiva. No se había dado en esos términos.

Sin embargo, no hay que confundir las señales positivas con la sensación de que el gobierno de Trump haya entendido que necesita una negociación racional y de mutua conveniencia entre México y Estados Unidos.

El presidente norteamericano seguirá presionado por cumplir las promesas que hizo a sus electores, así que no dude de que más allá de las buenas intenciones, prosiga una política agresiva contra los migrantes, la construcción del muro y la búsqueda de llevarse inversiones norteamericanas de México hacia EU.

Signos positivos ayer, pero no hay que confundirse. Estamos aún lejos de alcanzar acuerdos.

¿Hasta dónde el dólar?

Desde la víspera de la toma de posesión de Trump hasta la tarde de ayer, el peso le ganó 10.5 por ciento al dólar. En ese lapso fue la moneda más revaluada del mundo.

Hasta ahora las decisiones son correctas, pero esto no significa que estemos exentos de los riesgos de la volatilidad. Lo dicho, no hay que confundirse, los riesgos persisten.

Twitter:@E_Q_

 

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