Coordenadas
Enrique Quintana
Imagine usted a la economía mexicana como un avión que tiene dos motores, uno en cada ala. En esta imagen, piense que uno de ellos corresponde al mercado interno y otro al externo.
La velocidad del avión depende de la fuerza de los dos motores, y la trayectoria también depende de la relación entre la velocidad de uno y otro.
Aunque la imagen simplifica mucho las cosas porque la realidad es más compleja, deja ver rasgos fundamentales en la dinámica de la economía mexicana.
Veamos.
En 2014 las exportaciones de bienes –uno de los indicadores del mercado externo– crecieron en 4.4 por ciento y el consumo privado lo hizo en 2.0 por ciento, a un ritmo de menos de la mitad respecto al de la demanda del exterior.
En 2015 y 2016, la dinámica se invirtió. Las exportaciones totales cayeron en 4.1 y 1.7 por ciento respectivamente, frente a un crecimiento de 2.8 y 3.3 por ciento del consumo privado interno.
La fuerza de la economía en esos años derivó en gran medida de su consumo interno luego de una caída de la demanda exterior.
A la mitad de 2017 tenemos un despegue de la demanda externa, con un crecimiento de las exportaciones de 10.4 por ciento, pero también con un consumo doméstico que creció 3.4 por ciento. Es decir, la mejor combinación de los últimos años.
Ese hecho explica por qué el crecimiento del PIB en el segundo trimestre del año llegó a 3.0 por ciento, una de las mejores cifras de todo el sexenio.
Esto quiere decir que, si acaso se mantuviera la dinámica de los dos motores el resto del año, probablemente tendríamos un crecimiento significativamente superior a lo que ahora se estima.
En cualquier caso, en la Encuesta de Citibanamex sobre perspectivas económicas, levantada quincenalmente, el promedio que ayer se dio a conocer es de un crecimiento de 2.1 por ciento como estimado por el PIB de este año. Vale recordar que apenas en abril el pronóstico del consenso era de 1.6 por ciento.
Pero, ojo, los pocos datos que se han dado respecto al consumo en julio previenen respecto a una pérdida de potencia del mercado interno.
Uno de ellos fue el correspondiente a la venta de autos, que cayó 7.3 por ciento en julio, respecto al mismo mes del año pasado. Y la otra fue el reporte que ayer presentó Walmart, con un crecimiento de sus ventas a unidades iguales y semanas comparables de 6.4 por ciento nominal para julio.
La inflación anual estimada para el mes y que se da a conocer mañana arrojará una cifra parecida, por lo que la tasa de crecimiento real será cercana a cero.
El escenario más probable para el segundo semestre del año es un debilitamiento del ritmo del mercado doméstico, que seguramente va a bajar a su vez el ritmo del consumo privado junto con exportaciones que van a seguir con uno de los mejores desempeños de los últimos años.
La resultante de esas dos fuerza quizás sea un crecimiento económico que tal vez se acerque más a 2.5 que a 2.0 por ciento.
Y también habrá un mayor dinamismo en los estados con fuerte presencia manufacturera o con un sector agropecuario de exportación, como los del Bajío o algunos del norte.
En contraste, las regiones que dependen más del comercio doméstico quizá pierdan parte de la fuerza que tuvieron en los últimos 24 meses.
Con todo y todo, los dos motores de la economía funcionarán este año mucho mejor de lo que la mayoría esperaba.
Twitter: @E_Q_
Magnificent beat ! I would like to apprentice at the same time as you amend your website, how could
i subscribe for a weblog site? The account aided me a
acceptable deal. I have been a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided vivid clear
concept
When someone writes an article he/she retains the image of a user in his/her mind that how
a user can understand it. So that’s why this piece of
writing is perfect. Thanks!
Hello Dear, are you truly visiting this web page on a regular basis, if so afterward you will absolutely take nice knowledge.
Good post. I learn something new and challenging on blogs I stumbleupon on a daily basis.
It’s always helpful to read articles from other authors and practice something from other sites.
I am truly thankful to the holder of this site who has shared this fantastic
article at here.
This paragraph provides clear idea for the new people of blogging,
that really how to do blogging.
Outstanding story there. What happened after?
Thanks!
hi!,I really like your writing very much! percentage we
keep up a correspondence extra about your post on AOL?
I require an expert in this area to solve my problem. Maybe that is you!
Having a look forward to look you.
It’s truly a great and helpful piece of information. I’m
glad that you simply shared this useful information with us.
Please stay us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.
I enjoy what you guys tend to be up too. This kind
of clever work and reporting! Keep up the very good works guys I’ve
incorporated you guys to my blogroll.
I feel this is among the such a lot significant info for me.
And i’m glad reading your article. But wanna commentary on some normal things,
The website style is wonderful, the articles is actually nice
: D. Excellent process, cheers
Every weekend i used to pay a visit this site, because i want
enjoyment, for the reason that this this web page conations really pleasant funny data too.
Hello there, You have done a fantastic job. I’ll certainly digg it and personally suggest to my friends.
I’m confident they’ll be benefited from this website.
It’s great that you are getting thoughts from this post as well as from our argument made here.
I don’t know if it’s just me or if perhaps everybody else encountering issues with your
blog. It appears as if some of the text within your posts
are running off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this
is happening to them as well? This could be a problem with my browser because I’ve had this happen before.
Many thanks
I think this is one of the most important information for me.
And i’m glad reading your article. But want to remark on some general things, The web site style is great, the articles is really nice : D.
Good job, cheers
Excellent website. Lots of helpful info here.
I am sending it to several friends ans additionally sharing in delicious.
And obviously, thank you in your sweat!
In fact when someone doesn’t understand afterward its
up to other viewers that they will help, so here it happens.
I all the time used to study article in news papers but now as
I am a user of web so from now I am using net for articles, thanks to web.
Superb post but I was wanting to know if you could write a litte more
on this topic? I’d be very grateful if you could elaborate a little bit more.
Cheers!
WOW just what I was searching for. Came here
by searching for Sex Dating
It’s awesome in favor of me to have a web page, which is good designed for my know-how.
thanks admin
Hello There. I discovered your blog the usage of msn. That is a
really smartly written article. I’ll make sure to bookmark it and return to read
more of your useful information. Thank you for the post.
I’ll certainly return.
I’m not sure exactly why but this website is loading very slow for me.
Is anyone else having this issue or is it a problem on my end?
I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.
Its like you read my thoughts! You appear to grasp
so much approximately this, such as you wrote the e book
in it or something. I think that you just can do with a
few p.c. to power the message house a bit, however other than that, this is great blog.
A great read. I’ll certainly be back.
Heya fantastic blog! Does running a blog such as
this require a great deal of work? I’ve absolutely no expertise in computer programming however I
was hoping to start my own blog in the near future. Anyway, should you have any recommendations or tips for new blog owners
please share. I know this is off subject nevertheless I just wanted to ask.
Thank you!
Amazing blog! Do you have any hints for aspiring writers?
I’m planning to start my own site soon but I’m a little lost on everything.
Would you suggest starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid
option? There are so many options out there that I’m totally overwhelmed ..
Any recommendations? Cheers!
It’s remarkable to go to see this website and
reading the views of all mates concerning this post, while I am also zealous of getting familiarity.
We’re a bunch of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community.
Your site offered us with helpful info to work on. You have
done a formidable task and our whole neighborhood will likely be thankful to you.
This is my first time go to see at here and i am truly happy to
read all at single place.
Great article! We are linking to this particularly great article
on our website. Keep up the great writing.