Democracia eficaz/ Luis Carlos Ugalde
Como ocurre cada sexenio –con la excepción de aquel de Vicente Fox–, nuevamente está sobre la mesa la idea de reformar el sistema electoral mexicano. Ocurrió en 2014 (Peña Nieto), 2007 (Calderón), 1996 (Zedillo), 1994, 1993 y 1990 (Salinas de Gortari), 1986 (De la Madrid), 1977 (López Portillo) y así para atrás. Con Vicente Fox sí hubo una reforma electoral, pero fue focalizada sólo al tema del voto de los mexicanos desde el extranjero.
Desde los años setenta, todas las reformas electorales se han hecho por exigencia de los partidos de oposición. Por supuesto que el gobierno coordina, propone, cede y negocia, pero ha sido la “lógica de la desventaja” la que ha llevado a que se concreten reformas electorales. La oposición gana reglas más equitativas para competir y el gobierno cede a cambio de ganar legitimidad y de una relación armoniosa con la oposición.
Por ejemplo, la reforma de 1977 se hizo para darle representación a las minorías; la de 1990 para crear el Instituto Federal Electoral y dar transparencia a la organización de elecciones; la de 1996 para nivelar la cancha del juego mediante un nuevo sistema de financiamiento de partidos.
Luego vendría la lógica de hacer reformas para cerrar heridas de elecciones competidas o conflictivas. La de 2007 fue una concesión parcial al PRD que había apoyado la protesta postelectoral de López Obrador y por ello se estableció el recuento generalizado de sufragios (para dar respuesta al cántico “voto por voto, casilla por casilla”), se emitieron prohibiciones para la publicidad de terceros y se dieron espacios gratuitos a partidos en medios electrónicos. Esa reforma también fue en respuesta a la presión de un segmento del PRI que buscó sacar raja política al conflicto del gobierno con López Obrador.
La reforma de 2013-2014 fue una concesión al PAN que argumentó que los gobernadores del PRI alteraban la equidad de la contienda y surgió así la nacionalización parcial de la organización de comicios. También fue una concesión a todos los partidos, pues se aumentó –en promedio– 50% su financiamiento en el ámbito estatal, algo que no se dijo abiertamente pero que ocurrió de forma sigilosa.
Morena convocó la semana pasada al foro “Reforma del Estado y Electoral” para discutir diversas iniciativas para una nueva reforma electoral. El tema que más ha retumbado ha sido la austeridad electoral y se ha propuesto la desaparición de los órganos electorales de las entidades, los llamados Oples, como una vía para ahorrar dinero.
La discusión hasta ahora ha replicado el mismo problema que otros ejercicios del pasado: no se parte de un diagnóstico de las fortalezas y debilidades del sistema electoral; no se elabora una visión de largo plazo del tipo de democracia electoral que queremos y, por tanto, estamos a merced de las modas del día o de los intercambios de coyuntura. Por ejemplo, la idea eje de los foros ha sido la austeridad republicana de López Obrador. No es malo que se busque reducir el costo de la democracia; lo malo es que se haga para envolverlo dentro de la narrativa y la propaganda del nuevo gobierno.
El riesgo de una nueva reforma electoral es que se haga sin una visión de largo plazo y que se trate de aplicar la austeridad republicana sin ton ni son, a rajatabla. El riesgo es que se asuma que la austeridad es el fin ulterior de una nueva reforma y todo se subordine a ese objetivo político. El riesgo es que se sacrifique certeza e independencia de los órganos electorales.
Hay enorme margen para reducir el costo presupuestario de la democracia, pero debe hacerse sin someter a cambios abruptos a los órganos electorales. Por ejemplo, se podría eliminar el doble sistema de financiamiento de partidos políticos: estatal y federal, y sólo mantener el segundo. También podría adoptarse el uso de la urna electrónica: con ella ahorramos en papel, urnas y crayones; también en capacitación de funcionarios de casilla. Con urna electrónica se elimina la necesidad de sistemas de resultados preliminares (el famoso PREP), pues los resultados se suman de forma inmediata.
Es preocupante la propuesta del diputado Pablo Gómez de desaparecer el Consejo General del INE y convertir a la institución en un órgano eminentemente técnico. Ojalá así lo sea algún día, pero la realidad política ha demandado justamente lo contrario: un órgano de dirección colectiva con supervisión de los partidos. Ha sido la desconfianza de los partidos de oposición, en los cuales ha militado el diputado Gómez, que han exigido ese gasto en medidas de seguridad para combatir la desconfianza.
Es cierto que se puede reducir el costo del aparato electoral mexicano, pero debe ser un camino gradual que no detone nuevamente la desconfianza. Si este aparato burocrático se construyó para protegerse de la hegemonía y del abuso del PRI de los años ochenta y noventa, sería miope cometer el mismo error ahora que Morena está en vía de convertirse en el nuevo partido hegemónico.
Esta es la primera vez que el partido en el poder busca cambiar el marco electoral vigente. Bienvenido el deseo de reducir costos, pero sin afectar la confianza de los otros. Si el costo de abaratar los costos de la democracia es abrir el circo de la desconfianza, es mejor no hacer nada por el momento. El sistema electoral mexicano tiene muchas deficiencias, pero tiene un activo que debemos cuidar: la certeza y profesionalismo de la organización electoral.
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