Tenemos T-MEC, tenemos optimismo
Por: Demian Duarte
Optimismo, por la economía, optimismo por el futuro, optimismo por el presente, así está la cosa en este momento alrededor de la celebrada ratificación del nuevo tratado comercial entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá, que nos ofrece tranquilidad, confianza y perspectiva de impulso para la economía.
Mucho se ha dicho ya que el 2020 es el año del despegue para nuestro país y la realidad lo confirma, el año anterior nos colocó como el principal socio comercial de los Estados Unidos, una situación en la que se desplazó a China, Japón y Canadá y en la que además nuestro país maneja un super avituallamiento por más de 130 mil millones de dólares no es poca cosa, el 2019 se planteó así, sin acuerdo comercial renovado y hoy que existe ese factor de confianza y se acaba con la incertidumbre, la expectativa es que ese volumen de intercambio comercial por más de 500 mil millones de dólares crezca y se consolide.
México de esa manera se encuentra en la orilla de una etapa de crecimiento para su economía, las estrategias de fortalecimiento del mercado interno, la captación de inversiones del exterior y la perspectiva de tener el T-MEC operando, a la par de las inversiones de recursos públicos en infraestructura y la alianza que hay ya con el sector privado a nivel nacional, nos plantea oportunidades.
Es sabido que el proyecto del gobierno de Andrés Manuel López Obrador es tener crecimiento del 4 por ciento en promedio durante el sexenio y esto a partir de la lógica de que tuvimos un primer año con un crecimiento muy tímido, de entre el 0.5 al 1%, nos enfrenta a la perspectiva de que se tiene que impulsar muy fuerte la economía y el principio debe ser este año, con una tasa de crecimiento del 2.5%, sin embargo para el 2021 será necesario hacerlo por arriba del 5% y para los años subsecuentes consolidar ese impuso y mantener el ritmo, para propiciar lo que tendríamos que llamar como el “nuevo milagro mexicano”.
Para nuestro país la perspectiva es muy buena, sin embargo debo anotar que para Sonora el escenario no puede ser mejor, ya que como usted sabe estamos en la frontera y nuestra posición es estratégica, a partir de la asociación con Arizona, que es uno de los estados con mayor crecimiento en el vecino país del norte, pero también a las puertas de California y de todo el suroeste de los Estados Unidos, lo que nos presenta grandes oportunidades como estado a partir de explotar nuestros sectores estratégicos.
Será fundamental que como estado tengamos las capacidades, primero de diseñar una estrategia, pero también de hacer las inversiones que se requieren en infraestructura, porque si bien ahí está el T-MEC, no podemos olvidar que tenemos carencias en la frontera, en nuestras carreteras, en el Puerto de Guaymas que nos impiden aprovechar de manera integral esas oportunidades.
Creo que la gobernadora Claudia Pavlovich tiene una gran oportunidad justamente en el tercio final de su administración, y es que tras una fase de desaceleración de la economía estatal, hoy el T-MEC plantea una perspectiva de futuro y de presente inmejorable.
Para el país el presidente López Obrador ya dijo que es buen acuerdo y que esto le da al paìs una gran perspectiva, coincido con su análisis y su lectura, y una vez resuelto este tema que es esencial para México, es necesario no bajar el ritmo y hacer que las cosas que se están haciendo en combate a la corrupción, inversiones en obras públicas y proyectos estratégicos, además de programas de bienestar, incremento del ingreso de los trabajadores persistan y se consoliden.
Vienen grandes cosas para México.
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