Democracia Eficaz
Luis Carlos Ugalde
López Obrador necesita un plan si quiere desmantelar el régimen neoliberal y hacer la cuarta transformación. Los discursos y las arengas sirven para contar una historia y contagiar entusiasmo; pero cambiar de modelo económico requiere objetivos claros, metas cuantificables, estrategias, escenarios y estimaciones presupuestarias. Hasta hoy, el gobierno ha delineado nueve programas sociales, tres proyectos de infraestructura y su estrategia de seguridad pública. Pero carece de un plan global para orientar la ejecución de su gran tarea histórica.
El 12 de junio se publicó el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo (PND) 2019-2024. Se perdió una oportunidad para trazar una hoja de ruta sólida y creíble de un cambio de régimen. Esta es la primera vez que el Poder Legislativo participa en la revisión, discusión y aprobación del PND y no hizo su trabajo: aprobó un documento que no es un plan y al hacerlo violentó la ley de planeación, que exige que el plan –como lo dice su nombre– contenga los objetivos específicos, las estrategias, los indicadores de desempeño, las metas y los programas sectoriales que deberán ser elaborados.
López Obrador dijo que no le gustó la propuesta que le hizo su secretario de Hacienda porque era “continuismo”. Entonces él redactó –con asesores de su oficina– una versión alternativa. Al hacerlo, sustituyó lo que consideraba un plan neoliberal por un texto lleno de retórica pero sin un diagnóstico robusto y líneas claras de acción. Ciertamente la propuesta de Carlos Urzúa era un documento de planeación estratégica: frío, neutro, calculador. Y AMLO quería una arenga histórica.
Pero no había contradicción en tener una arenga política como carta de presentación y una sección de planeación real. Los planes no tienen ideología: son rutas de acción. López Obrador cuenta con una visión de país que ha esbozado de forma recurrente, pero no todos en su gobierno conocen o comparten las políticas públicas concretas para alcanzar esos fines.
El plan dedica dos párrafos a enumerar las acciones para erradicar la corrupción, la bandera más importante del nuevo gobierno. No esboza un diagnóstico con las causas del problema ni establece políticas públicas para lograr su fin. Por ejemplo, nada se dice sobre el uso de efectivo, ni tampoco sobre las políticas de transparencia; nada hay del tema de gobierno electrónico ni nada sobre la procuración de justicia o sobre la prevención de la corrupción. Por cierto, una de las medidas que se proponen –prohibir las adjudicaciones directas– ha sido letra muerta en esta administración.
En el tema de política exterior se dedican cinco párrafos. El proyecto del tren maya merece dos párrafos. Para construir un país con bienestar, el plan enumera los seis programas sociales torales del nuevo gobierno, se describen montos de apoyo y en algunos casos el universo de beneficiarios. Pero no sabemos cuál será el impacto final de estos programas: cuánto se espera reducir la pobreza extrema y cómo mejorara la distribución del ingreso. ¿Cómo evaluaremos la contribución del gobierno al bienestar de los más pobres si el plan nada dice de la meta a alcanzar?
Quizá las únicas metas que se esbozan con claridad son que el país crecerá 6.0 por ciento en 2024, que el poder adquisitivo de los salarios se recuperará en al menos 20 por ciento y que habrá una reducción de los índices delictivos del 50 por ciento. La primera meta es inalcanzable, la segunda posible y la tercera muy difícil de lograr.
Que haya planes bien trazados no significa que se cumplan: muchas propuestas y programas de los gobiernos ‘neoliberales’ fueron letra muerta. Pero sin plan es altamente probable que cunda el desorden y la improvisación. Un gobierno que diseñará y ejecutará políticas prácticamente sobre las rodillas. Las grandes transformaciones no sólo requieren de mucha pasión –como la tiene López Obrador–, sino también de números, datos, estrategias y metas para saber si el plan va por buen camino.
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