La inversión nos puede complicar 2018 y 2019

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Enrique Quintana

Uno de los principios económicos fundamentales –que pareciera que por fundamental a veces se olvida– es que la dinámica de la economía depende principalmente de la inversión productiva.

El consumo sólo puede ser el soporte del crecimiento en ciertos lapsos, no muy prolongados, pero si la inversión se estanca de manera crónica, irremediablemente lo hará la economía.

Por eso es que preocupa que, por cuarto mes consecutivo, en abril, la inversión haya retrocedido, ahora en 2.7 por ciento (con cifras desestacionalizadas).

Lo peor es que si nos remontamos a los datos de cuatro años antes, la cifra de abril de este año apenas es superior en 2.3 por ciento a la de abril de 2014, lo que significa un crecimiento promedio anual de un raquítico 0.6 por ciento anual promedio.

Y, como aquí le he comentado en varias ocasiones, el problema es que la caída del ritmo de inversión es algo crónico, que trasciende los sexenios.

Si lo vemos por décadas, resulta que de abril de 2010 al mismo mes de este año, el crecimiento medio anual fue de un escaso 2.2 por ciento. En la primera década de este siglo, la tasa fue de 2.0 por ciento.

En contraste, en el periodo de siete años que va de 1993 al año 2000, el crecimiento promedio de la inversión fue de 4.3 por ciento al año.

¿Qué fue lo que ocurrió en este siglo que produjo este desplome que acumula tres sexenios?

El tema principal es el retroceso de la inversión pública.

De acuerdo con los datos del Inegi en los 12 años que van de 2003 a 2015 (periodo para el que hay cifras comparables) la inversión privada creció a una tasa de 4.0 por ciento anual promedio.

En contraste, la inversión pública –según Cuentas Nacionales– apenas creció en 0.9 por ciento anual para el mismo lapso y, específicamente, de 2009 a 2015 hubo una caída de 28.1 por ciento.

Las políticas que han privilegiado el gasto social, el crecimiento de las estructuras administrativas del Estado, la creciente carga de las pensiones, entre otros factores, han reducido los recursos que se pueden destinar a la inversión pública.

Además, no han funcionado adecuadamente los mecanismos para sustituir la inversión directa del Estado por esquemas público-privados.

Por eso le he comentado en otras ocasiones, y le reitero ahora, que cualquiera que gane la presidencia de la República en 2018 necesitará comenzar su mandato con una nueva reforma fiscal, salvo que se resigne a no contar con recursos para dinamizar la inversión del sector público.

No en todos los casos, ésta es reemplazable con la del sector privado, por lo que dejar las cosas como están ahora implicaría condenar a que el crecimiento no vaya más allá de los mediocres promedios que hemos tenido desde hace ya muchos años.

Y lo peor del caso es que si no moviliza la inversión del Estado, va a acabar por afectarse la inversión privada, como ya lo estamos viendo en las cifras más recientes.

Sume usted eso a un entorno electoral que casi irremediablemente va a producir una situación de incertidumbre y nos encontraremos con un contexto muy complicado para la economía mexicana en los años 2018 y 2019.

Twitter: @E_Q_

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