¿Cuál es el valor real del dólar?

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Enrique Quintana

Entre el 19 de enero y el 3 de marzo el peso se revaluó frente al dólar en 11 por ciento, lo que implicó una ganancia de 2.43 pesos.

Pero si nuestro punto de referencia fuera la elección en Estados Unidos, es decir el 8 de noviembre, la depreciación de nuestra moneda frente al dólar es de 6.5 por ciento, equivalentes a 1.19 pesos.

Cuando se ven estos vaivenes surge la pregunta: ¿cuál debería ser el nivel real de nuestra moneda frente al dólar?

En un régimen cambiario de libre flotación, como el que tenemos, la paridad se fija por las propias condiciones de la oferta y la demanda. Y éstas a su vez dependen mucho de las expectativas.

Por esa razón, las declaraciones de Wilbur Ross el viernes pasado, anticipando una recuperación de nuestra divisa si se alcanza una negociación “sensata” del TLCAN, motivaron una ganancia del peso.

Los dichos del secretario de Comercio de Estados Unidos (EU) hicieron que más inversionistas consideraran viable un acuerdo comercial que no afecte de manera importante el comercio entre los dos países.

Un ejercicio teórico, que simplemente es útil para observar los movimientos de las divisas, es comparar la paridad efectiva con la que se hubiera establecido si se hubiese ajustado en función de los diferenciales de precios entre los dos países.

Veamos:

Consideremos que la cotización de equilibrio era la de hace un año, cuando el dólar estaba en 17.74 pesos.

En ese lapso la inflación en EU puede estimarse en 2.5 por ciento mientras que la de México en 4.7 por ciento.

El diferencial es de 2.1 por ciento. Si la paridad se hubiera ajustado en función de ello, se hubiera ubicado en 18.11 pesos. Ese es el nivel teórico del dólar.

La cifra cambia en función del punto inicial de comparación.

Si en lugar de hace un año, el punto de partida fuera hace dos años, los datos son los siguientes: el dólar estaba a 15.49 pesos, la inflación acumulada en Estados Unidos fue de 3.9 y en México de 7.8 por ciento.

El diferencial es de 3.8 por ciento. Así que la paridad teórica de equilibrio podría fijarse en 14.92 pesos.

Sin embargo, prácticamente nadie considera posible que el dólar regrese a esos niveles.

Si lo que señala Ross resulta correcto y se genera la perspectiva de que puede venir una negociación del TLCAN que no sea desfavorable para México, entonces lo “sensato” sería pensar en una paridad del peso frente al dólar como estaba antes de que arrancara el proceso electoral en Estados Unidos, es decir, rondando los 18.50 pesos.

Aunque debe señalarse que ese nivel también depende de lo que suceda con las decisiones de la Reserva Federal. El consenso es que el próximo 15 de marzo la Fed aumentará en un cuarto de punto su tasa de referencia y ello podría poner nueva presión al peso.

La realidad es que más allá de las paridades teóricas, no hay que perder de vista que estamos en un tiempo de alta volatilidad e incertidumbre.

La volatilidad implica la posibilidad de una ganancia rápida del peso, como sucedió el viernes pasado, pero igualmente de pérdida.

La paridad real, finalmente, es la que va fijando el mercado, día con día, y me temo que todavía nos esperan muchos vaivenes en los siguientes meses.

Twitter: @E_Q_

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